Hurricane season in the Caribbean

[lenquixote66]

Although we have cruised to the Caribbean more than 10 times we have always gone in December or January.This year we are going in October .Is this a mistake ?

[Corby114]

Hurricane season is June 1st to November 1st. The highest surge of possible hurricanes during that time is usually the middle of September. I have been on numerous cruises during October that included being between a hurricane and tropical storm during a Western Caribbean cruise. It’s the luck of the draw. In reference to that sailing we made all of our scheduled ports except the ports were reversed. A captain will never take a chance to cause harm to his ship, his passengers, and his crew. Enjoy your October cruise.

[navybankerteacher]

20 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

Although we have cruised to the Caribbean more than 10 times we have always gone in December or January.This year we are going in October .Is this a mistake ?

There is really only a slight chance that a hurricane will be anywhere near your cruise’s scheduled course. We are already almost half way through this year’s season and only the third named storm is still way out in the Atlantic.

 

Any embarkation port MIGHT be impacted by a hurricane perhaps three days out of the 183 in the season - the odds are better than 60 to one in your favor on that score.  Once you are at sea, the tracks of hurricanes are sufficiently predictable that they are easily avoided.

 

The only identifiable mistakes I can see are:

a) Going back to the Caribbean one more time - when you could be doing a back to back TA on QM 2, or something involving Canada and New England; and:

2) Going to the Caribbean in October when the weather in most of the US is great - rather than in the winter when it makes sense to seek warmth.

 

 

 

[lenquixote66]

4 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

There is really only a slight chance that a hurricane will be anywhere near your cruise’s scheduled course. We are already almost half way through this year’s season and only the third named storm is still way out in the Atlantic.

 

Any embarkation port MIGHT be impacted by a hurricane perhaps three days out of the 183 in the season - the odds are better than 60 to one in your favor on that score.  Once you are at sea, the tracks of hurricanes are sufficiently predictable that they are easily avoided.

 

The only identifiable mistakes I can see are:

a) Going back to the Caribbean one more time - when you could be doing a back to back TA on QM 2, or something involving Canada and New England; and:

2) Going to the Caribbean in October when the weather in most of the US is great - rather than in the winter when it makes sense to seek warmth.

 

 

 

We also are doing a December Caribbean cruise.We were thinking of a New England-Canada cruise but we want one that stops in Quebec City leaving from NY or NJ and could not find one.

[navybankerteacher]

10 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

We also are doing a December Caribbean cruise.We were thinking of a New England-Canada cruise but we want one that stops in Quebec City leaving from NY or NJ and could not find one.

You should have looked harder (or gotten a new travel agent):   QM2 round trip from Brooklyn with 2 overnights in Quebec - sailing 9/1 and 10/4;  Celebrity Summit from Bayonne with one Quebec overnight 9/8, and 10/6, also at least one MSC from Manhattan.

 

We are going to the Caribbean on QM 2 Dec. 22 - tired of the Caribbean, but more tired of decorating, etc. for Christmas and New  Years -  too bad the New York market had been largely abandoned to the second rate NCL and Royal Caribbean’s Heffalumps of the Seas. HAL used to offer great options out of NY.

Edited August 22, 2019 by navybankerteacher

[lenquixote66]

8 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

You should have looked harder (or gotten a new travel agent):   QM2 round trip from Brooklyn with 2 overnights in Quebec - sailing 9/1 and 10/4;  Celebrity Summit from Bayonne with one Quebec overnight 9/8, and 10/6, also at least one MSC from Manhattan.

 

We are going to the Caribbean on QM 2 Dec. 22 - tired of the Caribbean, but more tired of decorating, etc. for Christmas and New  Years -  too bad the New York market had been largely abandoned to the second rate NCL and Royal Caribbean’s Heffalumps of the Seas. HAL used to offer great options out of NY.

Too late now,hopefully next year. We did a Summit cruise to New England and Canada in 2013.Obviously I did not look hard enough.

[geoherb]

48 minutes ago, Corby114 said:

Hurricane season is June 1st to November 1st.

 

The official Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through November 30. Storms can happen any time of the year. Hurricane Alex happened in January 2016. This year was had Subtropical Storm Andrea in May .

 

We sailed on the Ruby Princess to the Caribbean one August. There was a hurricane in the Bahamas, so the captain skipped going to Princess Cays. We got an extra day at sea.

[TNcruising02]

There's always a small risk the weather could impact your cruise.  One of my cruises in September was rerouted from eastern to western.  Another one of my September cruises was rerouted from Bermuda to the Bahamas.  I am hopeful that my cruise in a couple of weeks will make it to Bermuda.  It was disappointing that they were rerouted, but I was happy that they weren't cancelled.

[MBP&O2/O]

The only thing that is predictable about a TRS is its unpredictability.

Yes, there is an official season but things happen outside of those dates.

We normally go away in October but the last couple of times we went to the Caribbean we put it off until January and March ... and still had the after effects of a ‘biggy’.

Only you can Risk Assess it after research.

Personally ... I wouldn’t go at that time of year .... but that’s me.

 

[lenquixote66]

13 hours ago, MBP&O2/O said:

The only thing that is predictable about a TRS is its unpredictability.

Yes, there is an official season but things happen outside of those dates.

We normally go away in October but the last couple of times we went to the Caribbean we put it off until January and March ... and still had the after effects of a ‘biggy’.

Only you can Risk Assess it after research.

Personally ... I wouldn’t go at that time of year .... but that’s me.

 

I already made the final payment .I do not know why I booked a Caribbean cruise for October,probably another senior moment.

[evandbob]

We're cruising Oct 14 to Oct 25, southern itinerary, so we'll find out yea or nay after that cruise.  Perfectly acceptable if we have to re-route and change ports of course.  Safety and comfort first.  I'm not concerned, but I'll pack some bonine for any bouncy seas.

[lenquixote66]

13 minutes ago, evandbob said:

We're cruising Oct 14 to Oct 25, southern itinerary, so we'll find out yea or nay after that cruise.  Perfectly acceptable if we have to re-route and change ports of course.  Safety and comfort first.  I'm not concerned, but I'll pack some bonine for any bouncy seas.

I am cruising out of Manhattan and always have Bonnie regardless of the month of the cruise.

[navybankerteacher]

11 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

I am cruising out of Manhattan and always have Bonnie regardless of the month of the cruise.

Probably the most disruptive Atlantic storm in memory was the “Ash Wednesday Storm” in early March 1962.   It hung off the East Coast for three days - with the added harm of bitter cold and snow - causing many deaths and damage to coastal communities.

[Cruiser_1977]

I have a cruise to the Bahamas booked Sept 20-23. Good price and timing works for my work schedule. It's also just a quick getaway to tide me over until my January cruise...Anyway, I knew it was "hurricane season". I took the risk because I don't really care where the ship goes. It could stay at sea. I'm not even planning to get off in Nassau. I just want to be AWAY from my "real life" for a couple of days.

Edited August 23, 2019 by JennyB1977

[cb at sea]

Just because it's the "season", doesn't meant there WILL be a hurricane or tropical storm.  If there isn't, you won't notice any difference....if there IS a storm, the ship will re-route to go around it.  It's not as if the seas are any worse or better simply because it's a certain time of year.

[mnocket]

Well we're flying to Miami on 9/11 to board the ship on 9/14 (the peak of the hurricane season).  What could possibly go wrong?

[George C]

I agree normally end is 11/30 we always cruise at end of November and have been fine but a few times islands were in bad shape from a previous storm.

[lenquixote66]

We were never in a hurricane but we hit a bad storm in the Carolinas once.

[mafig]

Please remember that if you are flying in, airports will close if there is an approaching hurricane.  You have to get to the ship before it will "go around" a hurricane.

 

 

[cruisemom42]

I spent a lot of time in South Florida growing up. My grandmother taught me this rhyme re: hurricane season:

 

June: too soon

July: stand by

August: come they must

September: remember

(after) October: all over

 

Looking at NOAA's weather records for the last 150+ years, it's clear that August, September and October are the heaviest months for named hurricanes (e.g., those that reach the threshold for being considered a hurricane, although September is far and away the highest month. From 1851-2018, here are the number of named storms recorded, by month:

 

January: 3

February: 0

March: 1

April: 0

May: 4

June: 33

July: 58

August: 244

September: 406

October: 212

November: 47

December: 6

 

So while theoretically anything can happen weatherwise, you are pretty unlikely to be impacted by a hurricane outside the prime season. And even then, not all of these storms ultimately impact the Caribbean or only some part of it.

[navybankerteacher]

35 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

I spent a lot of time in South Florida growing up. My grandmother taught me this rhyme re: hurricane season:

 

June: too soon

July: stand by

August: come they must

September: remember

(after) October: all over

 

Looking at NOAA's weather records for the last 150+ years, it's clear that August, September and October are the heaviest months for named hurricanes (e.g., those that reach the threshold for being considered a hurricane, although September is far and away the highest month. From 1851-2018, here are the number of named storms recorded, by month:

 

January: 3

February: 0

March: 1

April: 0

May: 4

June: 33

July: 58

August: 244

September: 406

October: 212

November: 47

December: 6

 

So while theoretically anything can happen weatherwise, you are pretty unlikely to be impacted by a hurricane outside the prime season. And even then, not all of these storms ultimately impact the Caribbean or only some part of it.

Helpful statistics;  which show 406 big storms in 168 September’s — or an average of 2.7 in any September.  Because many do not hit the Caribbean at all, it is probably less than two per September which hit ANY part of the fairly large area referred to as Caribbean.  Those two might impact as much as 10%  of the area (1/10) for as many as three days (1/10).  That means there is less than one chance in 100 that your Caribbean cruise might be impacted - not terribly bad odds.

 

Regardless - September is a pretty nice month in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere — so why go to the hot and humid Caribbean then in any case?

Edited August 24, 2019 by navybankerteacher

[clo]

3 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Regardless - September is a pretty nice month in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere — so why go to the hot and humid Caribbean then in any case?

I don't get that either.  If you're major into cruising and nothing else, then are there 'fall foliage' trips or river cruises.  And train trips through the Canadian Rockies.  Or.... 🙂

[navybankerteacher]

3 minutes ago, clo said:

I don't get that either.  If you're major into cruising and nothing else, then are there 'fall foliage' trips or river cruises.  And train trips through the Canadian Rockies.  Or.... 🙂

...if you live within driving distance of any part of the East Coast you can spend a few days (at lower cost because peak season is over) and enjoy the best weather and warmest sea water temperatures of the year.

 

Cruising is great - but there is a time and a place for everything —- and September and the Caribbean are the worst on both counts.

[clo]

1 minute ago, navybankerteacher said:

...if you live within driving distance of any part of the East Coast you can spend a few days (at lower cost because peak season is over) and enjoy the best weather and warmest sea water temperatures of the year.

 

Cruising is great - but there is a time and a place for everything —- and September and the Caribbean are the worst on both counts.

We've done a number of house exchanges over the years.  (Easier at Lake Tahoe than I imagine it will be in Reno but who knows).  We did one on Cape Cod and it was glorious.  And we had seafood at least once and sometimes twice a day.

[mafig]

5 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

...i

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

 

Cruising is great - but there is a time and a place for everything —- and September and the Caribbean are the worst on both counts.

 

Except for prices.😊