NCL just cancelled through May 31

[DCGuy64]

3 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

My take is there were two groups.  One was the optimistic. Unfortunately, over time the optimistic have become more realistic as each group of cancellations happens. 

 

The other group were the deniers.  They typically remain true to their stance, unless they had a near death experience. 

 

 

My optimism is that it will get better, but my head isn't buried in the sand.

 

Some are in denial of Covid.  It's just the flu after all. Others are in denial in the fact that cruises are a long way off from starting. They aren't starting tomorrow, even if a test cruise happened today.  

 

However, with case counts going down on land things are starting to look better. Vaccines have helped for sure for those willing to take them.  Others are being cautious in their actions and reducing the risk of infection. As for the deniers, some of them will have had covid and joined the ranks of herd immunity, along with others that had no intention of joining that club.

 

As things look better on land, the chances of getting to sea improve as well.  Get the one in order and the other will follow, even with Covid deniers going about their way. More positive/good things have happened since mid December regarding the pandemic, even with the new strains. 

 

 

That's why my approach is the wait and see.  Regarding cruises, there has been a lot of waiting and little to no seeing.  I'm looking forward to more seaing 😉 and less waiting.

I think that a lot of people are basing their views and their outlook on one of two things, possibly both: 1. The facts and figures they see, and 2. Their own experience. People who see nothing online or on TV and in the media but gloom and doom are apt to assume the worst. Same with people who've lost a loved one to COVID and/or had a near-death experience with one. I know people like this and their fear is real. But it's also unrepresentative. MOST people, not many, not just a few, MOST people survive COVID, even people over 65. My father is 81 and his companion spent a few days in the hospital with it, but she recovered and he never had symptoms. EVER. My wife and I both had COVID, and she has a compromised immune system. We both recovered, just like 99% of the population. The fear of the virus is real, but its lethality has been WAY overstated. It is not the killer of everything and everyone that some make it out to be. Is it a horrible tragedy for the < 5% of people who die from it? Absolutely, and in no way do I mean to discount the tragedy of that for those it has affected. But the collateral damage it has inflicted, which is also counted in lives lost due to other illnesses, suicides and depression, is also terrible.

Regarding the prospects for cruising, I would put myself in the category of optimistic last year but pessimistic now. I have seen precious little in terms of loosening of lock downs and travel bans (which would presumably have a beneficial effect on tourism and cruising), and the CDC seems to be dragging its feet on allowing cruising to restart from the USA. It doesn't look good.

We have one cruise booked for July which I anticipate will get cancelled, and we'll just shift the money to a new one later, and we have one other slated for April 2022. Neither of these cruises has cost us anything more than deposit money so we're not liable for a great financial loss. I understand that others are not as lucky.

[sellwingri]

Call me an optimist but I still think Royal will start cruising again in July.  I know of a couple of staff who received a contract beginning in May.  After quarantee and test cruises, July sounds reasonable to me.

[mek]

42 minutes ago, Sea Dog said:

I'm starting to worry about my November 7th out of San Juan. It's not looking that great so far in 2021.

I have a November 28th Oasis cruise booked.  Right now I'm somewhat optimistic that the cruise will happen, but not 100% sure I will be on it if they reduce capacity.  Final payment isn't due until August and by then I think we will have a better idea what is happening by the end of the year.

[mek]

18 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

Some came to that realization last April. 

Unfortunately, my cruise deposit was NR, so the L&S option really didn't cost me anything.

[Biker19]

19 minutes ago, mek said:

Unfortunately, my cruise deposit was NR, so the L&S option really didn't cost me anything.

Sure it did, you could have the money sitting in your account instead of RCI's.

[Sea Dog]

27 minutes ago, mek said:

Final payment isn't due until August and by then I think we will have a better idea what is happening by the end of the year.

Good plan. What we are doing is instead of making payments for our cruise to Royal, we are putting that money in a savings account and when final payment is due, pay for the whole cruise then. No sense in tying up our money if they end up cancelling.

[mek]

Just now, Biker19 said:

Sure it did, you could have the money sitting in your account instead of RCI's.

But I would have had to make final payment to get a refund if the cruise was canceled - something I didn't want to do last summer, so I did the L&S before that was due.

I would like to hold onto the cruise because a got a balcony for a rock bottom price - this is the only cruise I have booked and I did that in Nov 19 - long before Covid was in the picture, so I'm willing to gamble with this one, but nothing else.

[molly361]

37 minutes ago, molly361 said:

I'm a slow learner😇

AND I like to collect junk bonds  @John&LaLa

[ILCTCRUISER]

2 hours ago, asalligo said:

Yes, not surprising. I think we can expect a solid three months past the first test cruise before any real cruising resumes and I suspect it takes a month to even prepare a test cruise, maybe more. 

 

There is another possibility.  With each announcement of further cancellations accompanied by the news about vaccines, could it be the cruise lines are considering waiting it out rather than jumping through the hoops, costly hoops, associated with ship modifications, changes to customer service procedures, reduced capacities, closed ports, etc.  Could it be that their plans are now focused upon/dependent on CDC lifting no sail orders and restrictions once a large, vast majority of the population has been vaccinated ?  

[asalligo]

4 minutes ago, ILCTCRUISER said:

There is another possibility.  With each announcement of further cancellations accompanied by the news about vaccines, could it be the cruise lines are considering waiting it out rather than jumping through the hoops, costly hoops, associated with ship modifications, changes to customer service procedures, reduced capacities, closed ports, etc.  Could it be that their plans are now focused upon/dependent on CDC lifting no sail orders and restrictions once a large, vast majority of the population has been vaccinated ?  

That's a very risky gamble. 

[smokeybandit]

50 minutes ago, ILCTCRUISER said:

Could it be that their plans are now focused upon/dependent on CDC lifting no sail orders and restrictions once a large, vast majority of the population has been vaccinated ?  

 

That would be very naive to trust the CDC not to further extend the no sail order.

[Another_Critic]

1 hour ago, Sea Dog said:

Good plan. What we are doing is instead of making payments for our cruise to Royal, we are putting that money in a savings account and when final payment is due, pay for the whole cruise then. No sense in tying up our money if they end up cancelling.

Regardless of COVID or not, why would you make advance payments (other than the deposit)?

 

Pay deposit.

Pay final payment.

[compman9]

It is quite remarkable how mad the world has gone over an illness that has a 99.7% survival rate, with hardly any fit and healthy working age people among the sadly deceased

 

History will record this as the most staggering period of international idiocy

[CORKY_Q]

1 hour ago, sellwingri said:

Call me an optimist but I still think Royal will start cruising again in July.  I know of a couple of staff who received a contract beginning in May.  After quarantine and test cruises, July sounds reasonable to me.

I'm not sure that that optimism is good in this case.  Mr Fain has already suggested that all staff will have to be vaccinated.  Between that requirement and travel restrictions on crew coming in to US, I expect that our August cruise will have to be cancelled.  We are now looking toward Sept of 2022.

 

Sea ya!

[little britain]

1 hour ago, Biker19 said:

Sure it did, you could have the money sitting in your account instead of RCI's.

With interest rates here are at 0.01% gross, it really doesn't make much difference! 

 

[ILCTCRUISER]

1 hour ago, asalligo said:

That's a very risky gamble. 

Yes, it would be a gamble.  Only suggested this as a possibility.  After all, if one accepts it as a given that the cruise lines will follow the CDC mandate re test cruises, one also has to accept that the cruise lines may decide not to move forward to meet the requirements of the mandate but rather wait until they can restart w/o making all of the needed changes.  In the end, I believe the number crunchers will have a lot of to say during the decision making process.

[mek]

2 minutes ago, little britain said:

With interest rates here are at 0.01% gross, it really doesn't make much difference! 

 

Yep - I only have $500 invested in the one cruise I have booked.  I don't like losing any money but as I made the deposit way over a year ago, it's money long gone.  I certainly will be happy if I can take a cruise this November, but I don't have to even think about it until later this summer.

[Iamcruzin]

 A pessimist can only be pleasantly surprised. Looking at the facts surrounding a situation and making an intelligent decision related to a cruise does not make one a pessimist.  It's still possible at this point for a 9 day cruise booked after November 1st to sail. That is being optimistic.  On the other hand if you are still holding on to hope that your Alaska cruise will sail you are not an optimist. You are hallucinating.

[lenquixote66]

3 hours ago, sellwingri said:

Call me an optimist but I still think Royal will start cruising again in July.  I know of a couple of staff who received a contract beginning in May.  After quarantee and test cruises, July sounds reasonable to me.

July ,2023 is absolutely correct.

[bucfan2]

4 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

You make it sound as if only the optimistic were proven wrong. So were those who said 2 million Americans would be dead by end of summer, no vaccines for years, and no cruising at all in 2020-all also wrong. Are you really blaming people who just wanted some good news to look forward to? Besides, all predictions are based on what the facts are at any given moment, and could change-for better or for worse.

 

 

Great points....

[Sea Dog]

2 hours ago, Another_Critic said:

Regardless of COVID or not, why would you make advance payments (other than the deposit)?

In the past, (way before COVID) we liked making payments as we go, Now we think different, and put it in a separate cruise fund savings account.

[Iamcruzin]

2 hours ago, little britain said:

With interest rates here are at 0.01% gross, it really doesn't make much difference! 

 

The difference being if for some reason I want that money maybe to book a land vacation, I can have easy access to it and not have to wait 30, 60 or 90 days for a refund. Also my money is more secure in a bank than risking it in a business that is having financial issues at the moment.

[SeaHunt]

5 hours ago, mac_tlc said:

Unfortunately, the handwriting is on the wall. 

 

mac_tlc 

 

I hated to see this about a Miami cruise food service supplier auctioning off all their remaining supply - it doesn't sound like they're counting on supplying a ship anytime soon (if ever again) 😔 

 

Who would have thought you'd even miss looking over the side of a ship and seeing that long line up of trucks delivering supplies to your ship?

 

 

"In a sign of the times, a leading food service supplier for Florida’s cruise mega-ports is auctioning off all of the remaining inventory in its soon-to-be-shuttered Miami distribution center. 

 

With U.S.-based cruises shut down since March 2020 and long odds for a restart anytime soon, this is a challenging year for any company that relies upon the cruise industry for revenue. That includes everyone from small shore excursion vendors in Alaska to the industrial-scale suppliers in Florida, the headquarters of the global cruise industry. 

 

The liquidation company Tiger Group announced last week that it will be selling over $11 million (retail value) in commercial food products in an online auction to be held February 23.  The goods account for the remaining inventory of cruise ship food supplier Kansas Marine's 114,000 square foot Miami distribution center. The liquidation includes 40 million items covering everything from beans to cookie dough to vegan products, along with the warehouse’s material handling equipment".

 

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/sign-of-the-times-cruise-ship-chandler-liquidates-miami-warehouse

 

 

 

 

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, little britain said:

With interest rates here are at 0.01% gross, it really doesn't make much difference! 

 

If you accept that rate, shame on you. I have a money market account, for emergencies, that pay .5%. 

[MrSnarkyPants]

5 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

I think that a lot of people are basing their views and their outlook on one of two things, possibly both: 1. The facts and figures they see, and 2. Their own experience. People who see nothing online or on TV and in the media but gloom and doom are apt to assume the worst. Same with people who've lost a loved one to COVID and/or had a near-death experience with one. I know people like this and their fear is real. But it's also unrepresentative. MOST people, not many, not just a few, MOST people survive COVID, even people over 65.

They're preparing to bury my best friend this week from COVID. His whole family caught it when it was brought into the household during a custody swap from an ex. He went on a ventilator and died; the rest of the family had mild cases.

 

My sister was in the hospital for 3 weeks and survived.

 

I have a customer where COVID ripped through the department. Out of 4 staffers, one is dead, one was hospitalized for 3 weeks, and two had mild cases.

 

I work with people all across the country. The ones who follow protocols and don't engage in risky behavior generally stay well. The ones who are trying to pretend that this is no big deal and avoid masking,  go out to eat at indoor restaurants, make no effort to socially distance themselves, and act like nothing is happening are the ones who end up sick.

 

You can do whatever rhetorical flip-flops you'd like to paint me as "doom and gloom" or someone who is overreacting, but here's what we know:

• This virus affects people differently, and you don't know how it's going to end until you have it. 
• This virus travels through aerosols in confined spaces - and a cruise ship has lots of confined spaces.
• Until the vaccines are deployed worldwide and transmission is down, there is a significant risk being on a cruise ship
• If you think the industry is in bad shape now, try returning too soon and kill a few grandparents and see how many cabins you can sell after that.

You can call me all the names you'd like, but if you want to get people back on ships, you need vaccines in arms. Period.