Any signs of bankrupcy for any major cruiselines?

[babs135]

1 hour ago, Extra Kim said:

My wife, our then 2 year old daughter and I. 😉 

There's one backpack missing in the picture.

I don't understand why you need so much luggage .  Are you taking the kitchen sink?

 

[Wayfairers]

That is a lot of luggage for just a week!   Wow....we’ve been gone for 3 months with one small backpack each to a warm weather only destination and 5 months with that backpack and a carry-on rolling bag each for a trip that included weather from 40F-90F.  We travel light so that we can easily handle our own luggage and can easily use public transportation.  I know everyone has different comfort levels when it comes to the amount of things to take on a trip but wow!   Did y’all use everything in all those bags?

[Extra Kim]

Top three was only for my daughter. 

The bottom two was mine and my wifes bags.

[Extra Kim]

We did a 10nts cruise to Hawaii in September last year with another week on Hawaii after the cruise. We had the same luggage then.

 

The big black and orange bag contains a stroller and a baby carseat. The black bag are diapers, and other stuff for our daughter.

 

The backpack contains diapers, and other stuff that we needed for our daughter during the flight.

Edited August 3, 2020 by Extra Kim

[iancal]

Since retiring we travel twice a year, two months at a time.  Plus shorter trip in between.  Pre covid of course.   Cruises are sometimes interspersed with land trips.

 

At retirement we switched to carry on only. We both take a 20 inch roller.  That is it.  Plus DW's purse of course  Challenging at first but it has increased our enjoyment of travel immeasurably inasmuch as it has made it so much easier. 

 

First got the idea from another couple, an retired bank VP and wife from Seattle.  Met them in the middle of their three month post retirement land trip through Europe by train in a Florence laundromat.   Decided that if they could do it we could.  And we did...with the same benefits the they enunciated to us at that time.  It was challenging at first, and not for everyone but we would never go back.

[Extra Kim]

If it was only my wife and I, we would be able to pack in one suitcase for a week, but we learned the hard way the headache when a suitcase gets lost. We always pack half of my stuff and half of my wifes stuff in my bag and the other half in her bag.

That saved the cruise when Celebrity lost our bag in 2018.

[bigrednole]

Signs are getting brighter. The longer the delay, the higher the likelihood. We are still probably 6-months from that happening, but they could seek bankruptcy protection if they are not sailing by January or March. What, who, and how that affects everyone will have to be seen. FCC's would be impacted for sure, refunds on canceled cruises may be affected, shareholders definitely. 

[Wayfairers]

22 hours ago, Extra Kim said:

If it was only my wife and I, we would be able to pack in one suitcase for a week, but we learned the hard way the headache when a suitcase gets lost. We always pack half of my stuff and half of my wifes stuff in my bag and the other half in her bag.

That saved the cruise when Celebrity lost our bag in 2018.

I was going to say that when I read your comment earlier about what was in the bags.  We don’t have children so have never had to travel with everything required for their comfort and safety.  Now I’m thinking you probably did pack light!  

[drsel]

Signs are getting brighter. The longer the delay, the higher the likelihood. We are still probably 6-months from that happening, but they could seek bankruptcy protection if they are not sailing by January or March. What, who, and how that affects everyone will have to be seen. FCC's would be impacted for sure, refunds on canceled cruises may be affected, shareholders definitely. 

The three main Cruise lines have got cash to last for 12 months, so they should be ok till April or May 2021

[sfaaa]

There is also a chance cruise lines can refinance or extend their borrowing terms if a vaccine is approved and on the way. A lot can happen in the next 6 to 9 months.

[navybankerteacher]

7 hours ago, drsel said:

17 hours ago, bigrednole said:

Signs are getting brighter. The longer the delay, the higher the likelihood. We are still probably 6-months from that happening, but they could seek bankruptcy protection if they are not sailing by January or March. What, who, and how that affects everyone will have to be seen. FCC's would be impacted for sure, refunds on canceled cruises may be affected, shareholders definitely. 

The three main Cruise lines have got cash to last for 12 months, so they should be ok till April or May 2021

I am uncertain of how long their cash will last without revenue if they keep paying debt service, ship maintenance costs, and essential personnel salaries - how do you know they have enough to last 12 months?  And, don’t you think they might seek bankruptcy protection from ongoing debt service if it will allow sufficient funds to continue maintaining ships for ultimate return to revenue-producing operation?

 

They are NOT going to spend down to the last dollar before seeking to restructure their finances.

 

The filing by Cruises & Maritime (while a small player) may just be the first - in fairly short order.

[bigrednole]

They are going to be EXTREMELY cash strapped as the monthly payments for the loans begin. Carnival stated they can last 12 months, but that doesn't provide an actual start date. I am guessing it is April - March 2021. For RCL, they signed over a large number of guaranteed assets for their loans I believe. Some of those being big ships and at least one private island. 

[Wayfairers]

Announced no sailing until after October 31 today.   No one knows how many more of these types announcement will happen.  

[drsel]

Announced no sailing until after October 31 today.   No one knows how many more of these types announcement will happen.  

Costa is sailing in October in the middle East

[mnocket]

2 hours ago, Wayfairers said:

Announced no sailing until after October 31 today.   No one knows how many more of these types announcement will happen.  

True, but almost everyone knows there will be more.

[sfaaa]

3 hours ago, Wayfairers said:

Announced no sailing until after October 31 today.   No one knows how many more of these types announcement will happen.  

Hardly a surprise and as expected. 2020 will be a total write off for cruise industry and airlines.

[Hlitner]

3 hours ago, drsel said:

4 hours ago, Wayfairers said:

Announced no sailing until after October 31 today.   No one knows how many more of these types announcement will happen.  

Costa is sailing in October in the middle East

My first response is "you wanna bet?"   So far, nearly every attempt to restart cruising in Europe (and elsewhere) have quickly ended because of 1 or more positive Covid tests.   The latest, just announced yesterday, happened with a most unlikely ship operate by Uncruise Adventures.  This ship only had 35 passengers and everyone had actually been tested (for COVID) twice before the cruise!  And yet one passenger was found to be positive after the vessel had already sailed from Juneau.  So now, all passengers and crew will need to be quarantined (for an indefinite period) in a Juneau Hotel!    What is unique about Uncruise is that they met or exceeded all the Alaskan testing guidelines and tested everyone!   Even the passenger who tested positive had tested negative several days prior (which is why he could enter Alaska).  This is actually the toughest testing protocol in the world (as of yesterday) and it still failed!

 

So getting back to cruising after October 31 you would need to ask a simple question, "what will be different in November, December, January, etc. from now?   The cruise lines keep playing this rolling cancellation game but at this point they might as well cancel all cruises until 2021!  And even in 2021 it is likely that cruises will need to be cancelled.  To this cruise lover the situation is just very sad.  The problems with the restarts were very predictable but the cruise lines (and passengers) keep hoping something wonderful will happen and everything will be different....in a good way.   But the problem with all this hoping for the best attitude is that the virus does not listen to hope and prayers.  

 

Hank

[chipmaster]

On 8/3/2020 at 3:20 AM, Extra Kim said:

One week.. 😳

 

Impressive, I think my family of 5 did a two week Med, and other two weeks were all we had was each had one personal item and one roller board.   For the cruise we had one check-in luggage that was our formal shoes ( 5 of us and dress wear ).  

 

As we have become roadwarriors you quickly learn what is essential and what is just trimming not worth lugging.

[chipmaster]

3 hours ago, drsel said:

4 hours ago, Wayfairers said:

Announced no sailing until after October 31 today.   No one knows how many more of these types announcement will happen.  

Costa is sailing in October in the middle East

 

Can't wait to see how this one turns out, LOL

[rkacruiser]

On 8/3/2020 at 10:55 AM, babs135 said:

I don't understand why you need so much luggage .  Are you taking the kitchen sink?

 

 

During my first cruise, the kitchen sink stayed home because my landlady would have objected if I took it.  I had 5 pieces of luggage and my friend had 4 pieces.  This was our first cruise in 1970 for 11 days.  Dress expectations on a cruise were different then.  Admittedly, we were over prepared.  But, on one of our formal nights while wearing a brand new blue suit, I brushed against a railing that had recently painted with white maritime paint.  I gave those pants to my Steward to see if the paint stain could not be removed.  It wasn't.  I am glad I had an alternate formal wear night as a replacement for that suit.  

[ontheweb]

15 hours ago, Hlitner said:

My first response is "you wanna bet?"   So far, nearly every attempt to restart cruising in Europe (and elsewhere) have quickly ended because of 1 or more positive Covid tests.   The latest, just announced yesterday, happened with a most unlikely ship operate by Uncruise Adventures.  This ship only had 35 passengers and everyone had actually been tested (for COVID) twice before the cruise!  And yet one passenger was found to be positive after the vessel had already sailed from Juneau.  So now, all passengers and crew will need to be quarantined (for an indefinite period) in a Juneau Hotel!    What is unique about Uncruise is that they met or exceeded all the Alaskan testing guidelines and tested everyone!   Even the passenger who tested positive had tested negative several days prior (which is why he could enter Alaska).  This is actually the toughest testing protocol in the world (as of yesterday) and it still failed!

 

So getting back to cruising after October 31 you would need to ask a simple question, "what will be different in November, December, January, etc. from now?   The cruise lines keep playing this rolling cancellation game but at this point they might as well cancel all cruises until 2021!  And even in 2021 it is likely that cruises will need to be cancelled.  To this cruise lover the situation is just very sad.  The problems with the restarts were very predictable but the cruise lines (and passengers) keep hoping something wonderful will happen and everything will be different....in a good way.   But the problem with all this hoping for the best attitude is that the virus does not listen to hope and prayers.  

 

Hank

Your mention of that Alaska cruise that ended in a quarantine despite all the negative tests beforehand, brought up a question to me. What about false positives? It could have been one. If any positive test brings about this type of reaction, won't there be times that a person is denied boarding or everyone must go into quarantine and the cruise ended, but it turns out there really was no virus aboard.

 

Here's one example of a false positive actually happening to a prominent athlete:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/matthew-stafford-is-activated-off-of-reserve-list

 

Before this was proven to be a false test, it was widely reported as a positive test and he and his family (his wife BTW, is a survivor of brain cancer) had to quarantine. Another story I remember reading was that 2 out of the 3 members of the Phillies organization that tested positive ended up as false positives instead of having the virus.

[Extra Kim]

17 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Impressive, I think my family of 5 did a two week Med, and other two weeks were all we had was each had one personal item and one roller board.   For the cruise we had one check-in luggage that was our formal shoes ( 5 of us and dress wear ).  

 

As we have become roadwarriors you quickly learn what is essential and what is just trimming not worth lugging.

Well a stroller, diapers, wipes etc and a baby carseat is essential when you are traveling with a baby..

We did seven cruises between April 2018 and December 2019, four 7 nts, one 10 nts (with 6 extra nts on Hawaii), one 11 nts and one 14 nts. When had the same number of bags with us on all trips. 

 

You could argue that diapers, wipes and stuff like that could be bought in the U.S, Italy or Dubai, but for us it's not worth spending time trying to find these items. 

 

First picture are of the stroller and carseat, second is the stroller and carseat put into the flight bag and the last are of the bag with diapers etc.

[LHT28]

2 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Before this was proven to be a false test, it was widely reported as a positive test and he and his family (his wife BTW, is a survivor of brain cancer) had to quarantine. Another story I remember reading was that 2 out of the 3 members of the Phillies organization that tested positive ended up as false positives instead of having the virus.

It is  a good point  

Also what if someone has a false negative  test  joins a cruise later to be found to have the virus

Until they have a test with 100% accuracy rate  people should just wait  to rejoin groupscruises  etc

JMO

[Hlitner]

2 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Your mention of that Alaska cruise that ended in a quarantine despite all the negative tests beforehand, brought up a question to me. What about false positives? It could have been one. If any positive test brings about this type of reaction, won't there be times that a person is denied boarding or everyone must go into quarantine and the cruise ended, but it turns out there really was no virus aboard.

 

Here's one example of a false positive actually happening to a prominent athlete:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/matthew-stafford-is-activated-off-of-reserve-list

 

Before this was proven to be a false test, it was widely reported as a positive test and he and his family (his wife BTW, is a survivor of brain cancer) had to quarantine. Another story I remember reading was that 2 out of the 3 members of the Phillies organization that tested positive ended up as false positives instead of having the virus.

Whether we have false negatives or false positives missed my point.  What we do have, with no debate, is that the Alaskan cruise had to be ended, the ship returns to Juneau, and all the souls aboard are put into quarantine in local hotels.  The reliability of any test is not 100% but that also means there is no way to cruise with any degree of reliability.   I have posted elsewhere that trying to adopt protocols that rely on temperatures and testing does not necessarily work.  We cannot ignore that nearly every attempt to restart cruising (in both Europe and Alaska) have failed!  

 

Getting back to the Alaskan cruise, whether it ultimately turns out that any of those folks have COVID or not, there cruise vacation has been prematurely ended, those poor folks are now quarantined (not sure who is paying the bill) and their vacation has been ruined!   We have a cruise scheduled in early December which may or may not happen.  But that cruise is scheduled to end on Dec 17.  While we might be willing to take a risk on that cruise we are not willing to risk missing out on Christmas/New Years with our DD and Grandchildren because we may be put into quarantine (whether justified or not).   At this time anyone who takes a cruise must be prepared to spend several additional weeks being quarantined and I am not sure that will work for most folks' schedules.

 

Hank

[Nic6318]

On 8/4/2020 at 3:16 PM, sfaaa said:

There is also a chance cruise lines can refinance or extend their borrowing terms if a vaccine is approved and on the way. A lot can happen in the next 6 to 9 months.

 

Hi

 

Yes. Look how far we have come in the last six months. We just need to go the other way now.