Once Covid Vaccine comes out, would you be 1st in line?

[lenquixote66]

11 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

I would defiantly want an inside cabin.   I wonder if they will have a formal night.  😃

 

11 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

I would defiantly want an inside cabin.   I wonder if they will have a formal night.  😃

I believe the fee for the trip was $20,000.

[spookwife]

On 7/26/2020 at 3:26 PM, Luckiestmanonearth said:

So many people have indicated that they won’t cruise until we have a Covid vaccine

 

Question is once a vaccine is developed, approved and available , would you necessarily be one of the 1st ones in line to get a vaccine so you can cruise?

 

Or would you be apt to wait and see how it goes ?

Nope.  I have to wait and see if I can actually receive it.  Until my doc prescribes it, I ain’t gettin’ it

[ilikeanswers]

I am in two minds about this🤔. I'm a big supporter of vaccines and would love a Covid-19 vaccine but historically when there is political pressure to deliver results mistakes are more likely and things tend to get overlooked. I just hope that politicians need to point score doesn't have us repeating mistakes of the past😳. It would be a huge set back to the whole movement of vaccination. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by ilikeanswers

[cruisemom42]

13 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

I would defiantly want an inside cabin.   I wonder if they will have a formal night.  😃

 

No need to be defiant about it. No one's opposing you. 

[ldubs]

5 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

No need to be defiant about it. No one's opposing you. 

 

Drats!  The spell check curse strikes again.  Lol

[bigrednole]

Prefer not to be in line, but it may be required to be able to go anywhere in public. I have a friend that is in the Moderna Phase 3 trial now. 

[joytocruise27]

Much, much more afraid of covid than vaccine. So definitely, vaccine when available.

[SRF]

On 7/27/2020 at 11:15 AM, clo said:

Briefly, how long will immunity last? Will a second shot be necessary or even worth it? From what I've read:

 

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-vaccine-government-mandate-it-possible-1506548

 

25% of Americans aren't interested in a vaccine and it's questionable if the government (or even the cruise lines?) can require it. 

 

And if someone boards with all the documentation 'required' who knows if they will remain unable to transmit?

 

So, yep, I figure by maybe next summer we might have enough data to make a good decision. We have a trip booked with a small deposit that I can cancel until midsummer with a full refund.   I've always thought how wonderful travel is. But, to me, it's not THAT wonderful. (Guess you read about the young man who had a recurrence and is now paralyzed from the neck down.)

 

If 75%  of the population gets the vaccine, then it is likely we will attain herd immunity, when added to the natural immunity from those how got it.

 

And if 75% of the cruising population gets the vaccine, and 100% of the crew (the cruise lines will likely require crew to get it), then it doesn't matter if someone boards who could transmit.  That is the whole point of herd immunity.

 

The probability that someone who is transmitting it meeting someone susceptible is very low.  So maybe one or two might get it, but it does not run out of control.

[Luckiestmanonearth]

On 7/27/2020 at 8:33 AM, cruisemom42 said:

 

Participation in a trial for one of them would exclude you from participation in any others.

thanks

[squick64]

I've signed up for the trial, although I haven't gotten the vaccine/placebo yet because apparently, the shipment from the manufacturer hasn't arrived at the clinic. So yes, I'll get the vaccine, given that I'll get it when it's not even finished trials.

Edited August 8, 2020 by squick64

[sanger727]

1 hour ago, squick64 said:

I've signed up for the trial, although I haven't gotten the vaccine/placebo yet because apparently, the shipment from the manufacturer hasn't arrived at the clinic. So yes, I'll get the vaccine, given that I'll get it when it's not even finished trials.

Or you’ll get the placebo...

 

im curious about if when you do a trial they give you instructions to be less diligent about social distancing. One of the reasons I read that phase 3 trials could be tough is based on how well people social distances. If you live your life in a way where you only have a 5% chance of being infected anyway, how easy will it be to tell of the vaccine made a difference

Edited August 8, 2020 by sanger727

[CruiserBruce]

1 hour ago, sanger727 said:

Or you’ll get the placebo...

 

im curious about if when you do a trial they give you instructions to be less diligent about social distancing. One of the reasons I read that phase 3 trials could be tough is based on how well people social distances. If you live your life in a way where you only have a 5% chance of being infected anyway, how easy will it be to tell of the vaccine made a difference

Because one measurement of success is developing antibodies. It's not neccesarily required to be exposed to determine effectiveness. They don't test bullet proof vests by requiring someone to be shot while wearing them!

[George C]

I will be in front of the line to get the shot.

[fox02554]

are you kidding , I even volunteered to be in the local trial study group 😄 , both parents survived the Polio pandemic , I swallowed the vaccine sugar cubes at school , every fall I get my Flu & pneumonia shots , I'll get my covid too.

[sanger727]

3 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

Because one measurement of success is developing antibodies. It's not neccesarily required to be exposed to determine effectiveness. They don't test bullet proof vests by requiring someone to be shot while wearing them!

I got the information from listening to a radio show where the interviewed a doctor who was an expert in vaccine development. That is what he said phase 3 trials are, and how the ultimately determine if a vaccine is effective. Give it to a large number of people, wait 6 months to a year, and compare how many of them got the disease in community spread vs a control group. You can theorize until the cows come home that x level of antibody development creates immunity, but you don’t know that it does until it’s tested. Akin to your comparison, no, I’m not suggesting they give the vaccine to 1,000 people and then inject them with coronavirus, although I did hear that they considered getting volunteers for a trial like that since it would be faster than the traditional community spread method. But I’m not making that up and it makes sense. Short of giving people the vaccine and the virus, how else will you truly determine that that vaccine, which causes X level of antibody development, does in fact create immunity in humans. Short of testing that, it’s all just theory.

 

in fact a quick google search found several articles that say the same Thing 

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Edited August 8, 2020 by sanger727

[chipmaster]

54 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

I got the information from listening to a radio show where the interviewed a doctor who was an expert in vaccine development. That is what he said phase 3 trials are, and how the ultimately determine if a vaccine is effective. Give it to a large number of people, wait 6 months to a year, and compare how many of them got the disease in community spread vs a control group. You can theorize until the cows come home that x level of antibody development creates immunity, but you don’t know that it does until it’s tested. Akin to your comparison, no, I’m not suggesting they give the vaccine to 1,000 people and then inject them with coronavirus, although I did hear that they considered getting volunteers for a trial like that since it would be faster than the traditional community spread method. But I’m not making that up and it makes sense. Short of giving people the vaccine and the virus, how else will you truly determine that that vaccine, which causes X level of antibody development, does in fact create immunity in humans. Short of testing that, it’s all just theory.

 

in fact a quick google search found several articles that say the same Thing 

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

 

Cruising, football and return to normalcy 2022 baby!

 

“America will again, and soon, be open for business — very soon — a lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting [...] We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.”

[cruisemom42]

7 hours ago, sanger727 said:

 

im curious about if when you do a trial they give you instructions to be less diligent about social distancing. One of the reasons I read that phase 3 trials could be tough is based on how well people social distances. If you live your life in a way where you only have a 5% chance of being infected anyway, how easy will it be to tell of the vaccine made a difference

 

It would be considered unethical to do something like you suggest. Protocols for studies like these are very strict and very carefully reviewed. 

 

A couple of reasons why Phase 3 trials usually involve such a large number of participants are 1) to have enough "power" to statistically see even small differences in efficacy, and also 2) to look for adverse events that are really rare -- so rare you might not see them in a few hundred or even a few thousand people.

 

Edited to add:  Having seen over the last few months how "well" people socially distance, I wouldn't bank on that being a deterrent to establishing efficacy. 

 

Edited August 8, 2020 by cruisemom42

[sanger727]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

It would be considered unethical to do something like you suggest. Protocols for studies like these are very strict and very carefully reviewed. 

 

A couple of reasons why Phase 3 trials usually involve such a large number of participants are 1) to have enough "power" to statistically see even small differences in efficacy, and also 2) to look for adverse events that are really rare -- so rare you might not see them in a few hundred or even a few thousand people.

 

Edited to add:  Having seen over the last few months how "well" people socially distance, I wouldn't bank on that being a deterrent to establishing efficacy. 

 

I think the doctors concern was if the people who volunteered for the study were the most motivated to help - and therefore also the most likely to follow social distancing advice. So both placebo and vaccine group would be less likely than the general population to catch coronavirus - because they were the most trying to help. I agree, I doubt very much any suggestion of the sort would be given; but if 3 months into it the placebo group doesn’t have anyone catch coronavirus, they may have to change their strategy 

[cruisemom42]

8 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

 I agree, I doubt very much any suggestion of the sort would be given; but if 3 months into it the placebo group doesn’t have anyone catch coronavirus, they may have to change their strategy 

 

That's not how studies like these work. They can't change the protocol or the endpoints midway through.

 

But again, I do doubt whether this will really be an issue. The virus is contagious enough that with a large study they will be able to determine whether the vaccine works or not and to what degree (in the given circumstances).

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Cruising, football and return to normalcy 2022 baby!

 

“America will again, and soon, be open for business — very soon — a lot sooner than three or four months that somebody was suggesting [...] We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.”

This sounds very similar to the blather so many spouted back in April and May - which seem to me to have been that “three or four” months ago mentioned. 

[sanger727]

21 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

That's not how studies like these work. They can't change the protocol or the endpoints midway through.

 

But again, I do doubt whether this will really be an issue. The virus is contagious enough that with a large study they will be able to determine whether the vaccine works or not and to what degree (in the given circumstances).

I was simply making a point. I think you understand the point I was making. I’ve heard multiple times from multiple places that there are hurdles to phase 3 and this is one of them. For ‘how contagious’ this virus is, only 1.5% of the US who has ‘handled if the worst’ have caught it. So they will be working off the slimmest of percentages. Yes, I understand how statistical significance works. But there are possible reasons for while a 50% effective vaccine may not achieve statistical significance if the sheer rareness of infection in the tested population is to low. 

[Luckiestmanonearth]

8 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

Because one measurement of success is developing antibodies. It's not neccesarily required to be exposed to determine effectiveness. They don't test bullet proof vests by requiring someone to be shot while wearing them!

Are you sure that’s not how they test bullet proof vests ?  In can’t say you’d have a lot of volunteers 😂

Edited August 8, 2020 by Luckiestmanonearth

[TheOldBear]

12 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

Because one measurement of success is developing antibodies. It's not neccesarily required to be exposed to determine effectiveness. They don't test bullet proof vests by requiring someone to be shot while wearing them!

That is the purpose of the phase two trials. At least one of the trial vaccines (Oxford) not only demonstrated antibodies, but also some other reactive immunity (memory “B” cells).  

[chipmaster]

5 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

This sounds very similar to the blather so many spouted back in April and May - which seem to me to have been that “three or four” months ago mentioned. 

 

My personal opinion is the US can still recover to some reasonable normalcy if we could get a centralized Federal policy that is equally and with discipline enforced across the whole country with full buy in from State and City leadership.  Biology and evidence in other places suggest 8 weeks is probably the minimum to squash this thing citizens of any country willing.

 

But when you don't have a consistent, firm policy that is clearly communicated and enforced then this is where we are in the US.

 

We've gone from a country envied and hated for our bounty and freedom, but this pandemic has pulled the veil back on what is really behind that...   I fear even the vaccine will fall to the same things

Edited August 9, 2020 by chipmaster

[ilikeanswers]

8 hours ago, sanger727 said:

I think the doctors concern was if the people who volunteered for the study were the most motivated to help - and therefore also the most likely to follow social distancing advice. So both placebo and vaccine group would be less likely than the general population to catch coronavirus - because they were the most trying to help. I agree, I doubt very much any suggestion of the sort would be given; but if 3 months into it the placebo group doesn’t have anyone catch coronavirus, they may have to change their strategy 

 

Apparently a few vaccine developers have floated the idea of doing a Challenge Trial. Even WHO has said they are not completely opposed to the idea. Challenge Trials have been around since the first vaccine and they have been increasingly used in many vaccince trials in the last 50 years. Though from what I have read it has not been used on anything as infectious as SARS-CoV-2😳.