How will the COVID pandemic end so that cruising can fully resume

[SelectSys]

I found this video today that suggests an answer.  It's 21 minutes long, but I liked the realism of the author.  How do you all think this is going to end so we'll  be back to discussing cruise destinations and ships.  Even those ever popular questions like, "Should I fly in the morning of my cruise or go the day before?" would be nice to discus.

 

Edited August 22, 2020 by SelectSys

[bigrednole]

Rapid testing is required. A real vaccine is years away regardless of what the governments and media say. Cruise lines having very strict guidelines on how they will manage a covid case, facilities port side on how they will quarantine those people (that translates to the entire ship). 

 

As for the vaccines, BigPharma in the US has been given free reign on what ever they produce. Moderna has stated their vaccine may require boosters like flu shots 2-4x per year with the likelihood of stopping it like the annual flu vaccine and no liability if you contract it. Let that sink in for a minute. A $60 dose at 4x per year and most likely a requirement to attend schools and most business, that translates to 350M x $60 X 4 =  $84B  in revenue per year, no liability, and no investment from your company. That's right, $1.5B in taxpayer money to develop $84B in annual revenues. All of that revenue should be taxed at a rate of 99.9999999%. The US citizens should never have to pay for a vaccine they funded.

[cruisemom42]

5 hours ago, bigrednole said:

Rapid testing is required. A real vaccine is years away regardless of what the governments and media say. Cruise lines having very strict guidelines on how they will manage a covid case, facilities port side on how they will quarantine those people (that translates to the entire ship). 

 

As for the vaccines, BigPharma in the US has been given free reign on what ever they produce. Moderna has stated their vaccine may require boosters like flu shots 2-4x per year with the likelihood of stopping it like the annual flu vaccine and no liability if you contract it. Let that sink in for a minute. A $60 dose at 4x per year and most likely a requirement to attend schools and most business, that translates to 350M x $60 X 4 =  $84B  in revenue per year, no liability, and no investment from your company. That's right, $1.5B in taxpayer money to develop $84B in annual revenues. All of that revenue should be taxed at a rate of 99.9999999%. The US citizens should never have to pay for a vaccine they funded.

 

As I have often said of your posts, the facts are few and far between.

 

Most sources now indicate that what is expected is a flu shot plus one booster in the course of a year, not four shots.

 

The best estimate of the cost per dose of the vaccines under development (by a Pharma insider blog) ranges from just under $25 per dose for the Moderna vaccine, to around $21 per dose for the Sanofi + GSK vaccine, to $14.50 per dose for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, to a piddling $4 per dose for the AstraZeneca vaccine. The Pfizer + BioNTech vaccine cost is expected to be around $19.50 per dose—and the company hasn't accepted ANY federal funding for R&D or scale-up.

 

Also, what in the world makes you think that the Pharma companies are not putting money into this as well?  Their efforts are not 100% funded by the government. To use Moderna as an example, what about the nine previous years of research that Moderna has invested in creating and developing a novel platform to allow for this new class of mRNA-based vaccines?  

 

 

[Roz]

6 hours ago, bigrednole said:

Rapid testing is required. A real vaccine is years away regardless of what the governments and media say. Cruise lines having very strict guidelines on how they will manage a covid case, facilities port side on how they will quarantine those people (that translates to the entire ship). 

 

As for the vaccines, BigPharma in the US has been given free reign on what ever they produce. Moderna has stated their vaccine may require boosters like flu shots 2-4x per year with the likelihood of stopping it like the annual flu vaccine and no liability if you contract it. Let that sink in for a minute. A $60 dose at 4x per year and most likely a requirement to attend schools and most business, that translates to 350M x $60 X 4 =  $84B  in revenue per year, no liability, and no investment from your company. That's right, $1.5B in taxpayer money to develop $84B in annual revenues. All of that revenue should be taxed at a rate of 99.9999999%. The US citizens should never have to pay for a vaccine they funded.

 

I've never heard of anyone getting 2-4 boosters per year of the seasonal flu shot.  Where did you come up with that?  No liability?  If I get a shingles shot and later get shingles, I can't sue the drug maker.  It's not a 100% guarantee.  If the drug company produces a faulty vaccine, as in a bad batch, that's different.  

[bigrednole]

1 hour ago, Roz said:

 

I've never heard of anyone getting 2-4 boosters per year of the seasonal flu shot.  Where did you come up with that?  No liability?  If I get a shingles shot and later get shingles, I can't sue the drug maker.  It's not a 100% guarantee.  If the drug company produces a faulty vaccine, as in a bad batch, that's different.  

Not the flu shot, but the "covid vaccine". It is not a 1-and-done that is being developed. It is a recurring vaccine at a rate of 2-3x per year. As for no liability, if you take the "vaccine" and die because of it, the pharmaceutical will have no liability because it is a rushed drug. A complete waiver of liability will be required and it will be just like any other vaccine. Required for schools, etc. And yes, "bad batch" will be included in the waiver of liability. 

[Roz]

@bigrednole, you said "Moderna has stated their vaccine may require boosters like flu shots 2-4x per year...." which implies you are saying the Covid vaccine and seasonal flu shot require boosters 2-4 times per year. If that's not what you intended to say, then it was awkwardly worded.  

 

As far as liability, there was a situation a number of years back where individuals in NJ and GA became paralyzed from the neck down after receiving a flu shot.  The extreme reactions were traced back to certain lot numbers, and it was determined QC procedures weren't followed.  The victims and their families received a settlement from the drug maker.  I know this because a personal friend's father was one of the victims.  He was taken off life support and died.  There is no such thing as a complete waiver of liability when the manufacturer distributes a faulty product.  

[2wheelin]

10 hours ago, bigrednole said:

Rapid testing is required. A real vaccine is years away regardless of what the governments and media say. Cruise lines having very strict guidelines on how they will manage a covid case, facilities port side on how they will quarantine those people (that translates to the entire ship). 

 

As for the vaccines, BigPharma in the US has been given free reign on what ever they produce. Moderna has stated their vaccine may require boosters like flu shots 2-4x per year with the likelihood of stopping it like the annual flu vaccine and no liability if you contract it. Let that sink in for a minute. A $60 dose at 4x per year and most likely a requirement to attend schools and most business, that translates to 350M x $60 X 4 =  $84B  in revenue per year, no liability, and no investment from your company. That's right, $1.5B in taxpayer money to develop $84B in annual revenues. All of that revenue should be taxed at a rate of 99.9999999%. The US citizens should never have to pay for a vaccine they funded.

Fortunately others have debunked most of your misinformation, but there is more. Back in March or April Dr Fauci stated we needed to buy time because vaccines can take 12-18 months to develop. Why do you think a vaccine is still years away? Phase 3 trials are already underway. The delay in getting vaccines to market is more a factor of the red tape and delays in checking all the boxes. Just like other research an application arrives in the appropriate office on Wed but the review committee meets once a month and it was yesterday. Next month they will address the backlog from 3-4 months ago. When they get to yours, they will find typographical errors and send it back for correction., etc, etc. So you see something can be fast tracked without detriment when needed.

No one has determined whether a booster will be needed or not, and certainly not 4x/year.

I don’t know of any vaccine that carries a guarantee it will protect you 100% and they are liable if you contract the disease.

Also the non liability clause is standard in the industry.

In the US most vaccinations are low cost or free to the “patient”. I’m sure you can find outliers and the posted price may be one thing but the actual cost to customer is quite different. My flu shots have always been free.

As stated by others, years of research have already gone into finding the platform appropriate for this vaccine. Their expenses did not start in Feb

[clo]

Bill Gates is supporting a $3 vaccine.

 

https://www.complex.com/life/2020/08/bill-gates-coronavirus-vaccine-invest-3-dollars

[Hlitner]

How will it end?  Well, testing is somewhat of a con (as if statistics end anything) and all the existing tests have too many false negatives and some false positives.  The quick tests have a false negative rate of around 20%.  And what makes testing even more troublesome is that it can take several days to a week for a test to even show positive results after somebody has been exposed.   Will the Virus just "disappear?"  Most experts now say NO because it is a very efficient bug that is very contagious.  Those kind of viruses tend to survive for a long time (perhaps thousands of years).  A good example would be the measles virus.

 

So what will make this all go away.  A darn good vaccine would sure be helpful.  Will that happen?  Despite all the optimism (especially by drug company executives who profit when their stock value climbs based on their words) the truth is that we just do not know....yet!  Some preliminary Phase 3 results (at least 3 drugs are in Phase 3 trials) results should be known by late September or October and then we will all learn whether the optimism can be backed up with some facts.

 

Hank

 

 

[cb at sea]

This virus will NEVER "go away"....viruses don't do that.  They may mutate to a lesser form, or get worse....no one knows.  The "common cold" is a form of Corona virus...we have NO cure...and folks suffer from it yearly.  And yes...some have complications from it, and die.  Life is not safe, or sure.  

Learn to live with it.

 

[clo]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

How will it end?  Well, testing is somewhat of a con (as if statistics end anything) and all the existing tests have too many false negatives and some false positives.  The quick tests have a false negative rate of around 20%.  And what makes testing even more troublesome is that it can take several days to a week for a test to even show positive results after somebody has been exposed.   Will the Virus just "disappear?"  Most experts now say NO because it is a very efficient bug that is very contagious.  Those kind of viruses tend to survive for a long time (perhaps thousands of years).  A good example would be the measles virus.

 

So what will make this all go away.  A darn good vaccine would sure be helpful.  Will that happen?  Despite all the optimism (especially by drug company executives who profit when their stock value climbs based on their words) the truth is that we just do not know....yet!  Some preliminary Phase 3 results (at least 3 drugs are in Phase 3 trials) results should be known by late September or October and then we will all learn whether the optimism can be backed up with some facts.

 

Hank

 

 

And then they have to do mass vaccinations and see if and how long they work. Did I read here or somewhere else that now they're talking about four shots. Is that going to be once? Or every year? Do you have to have them all before you're allowed to cruise? So many questions.

[evandbob]

The last 2 surviving humans will Adam and Eve a new race impervious to the coronavirus?  ☺️

[clo]

32 minutes ago, evandbob said:

The last 2 surviving humans will Adam and Eve a new race impervious to the coronavirus?  ☺️

What if it's Adam and Bob?

[TheOldBear]

15 hours ago, cb at sea said:

This virus will NEVER "go away"....viruses don't do that.  They may mutate to a lesser form, or get worse....no one knows.  The "common cold" is a form of Corona virus...we have NO cure...and folks suffer from it yearly.  And yes...some have complications from it, and die.  Life is not safe, or sure.  

Learn to live with it.

 

 

From what I recall reading, there are several 'families' of virus that produce the common cold - rhino virus, corona virus, and something called 'RSV' [ see https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/cold-guide/common_cold_causes as an example]

 

About 20% of colds are attributed to corona virus - with four common strains [ https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html ]. Looks like SARS-COV-2 may be come a fifth common strain.  [Again, from what I recall reading, the corona virus 'D' strain caused a death rate comparable to a bad flu year when it was first encountered]

[lenquixote66]

19 hours ago, cb at sea said:

This virus will NEVER "go away"....viruses don't do that.  They may mutate to a lesser form, or get worse....no one knows.  The "common cold" is a form of Corona virus...we have NO cure...and folks suffer from it yearly.  And yes...some have complications from it, and die.  Life is not safe, or sure.  

Learn to live with it.

 

I was at a doctors office earlier today.In his opinion and shared by many of his fellow MD’s the Corona virus will be around for quite some time.He believes that people will be so frustrated and disgusted that they will remove their masks and stop socially distancing.

[SelectSys]

On 8/23/2020 at 4:27 PM, cb at sea said:

This virus will NEVER "go away"....viruses don't do that.  They may mutate to a lesser form, or get worse....no one knows.  The "common cold" is a form of Corona virus...we have NO cure...and folks suffer from it yearly.  And yes...some have complications from it, and die.  Life is not safe, or sure.  

Learn to live with it.

 

 

You are closest to what the video suggests.  The author suggests that COVID isn't going away and will likely mutate to a less deadly disease over time.  He believes that vaccines and treatments will help but not eliminate COVID.   He compares COVID to the Swine flu that is still circulating freely in a less deadly form.  

[evandbob]

23 hours ago, clo said:

What if it's Adam and Bob?

 

More power to them if they can....same with Eve and Ellen.....a new dawn

[chipmaster]

8 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

I was at a doctors office earlier today.In his opinion and shared by many of his fellow MD’s the Corona virus will be around for quite some time.He believes that people will be so frustrated and disgusted that they will remove their masks and stop socially distancing.

 

Then this will go really well, I guess compared to other places that had discipline and followed rules will be cruising far earlier and than sorry USA, LOL

 

[ldubs]

8 hours ago, fyree39 said:

A agree with this. I lived 4.5 years in Japan and I've never seen a more disciplined people. I believe this is true of many Asian countries. In the US, we don't display this type of self-discipline, so we'll pay for it by not cruising, not being welcome in other countries and so forth.

 

I agree with your general observation regarding Japan and some other Asian countries.  While I would not argue that Americans are more disciplined, in my recent experience most American's are wearing masks in public, or at least trying to adhere to the guidelines.  I just returned from visiting our grandchild in Los Angeles.  Even there we see most are complying with with masks and social distancing.  Rotten apples really are spoiling the barrel.      

[clo]

9 hours ago, fyree39 said:

A agree with this. I lived 4.5 years in Japan and I've never seen a more disciplined people. I believe this is true of many Asian countries. In the US, we don't display this type of self-discipline, so we'll pay for it by not cruising, not being welcome in other countries and so forth.

We used to live in San Francisco and I found the Japanese people as a group, whether locals or visitors, to be very "polite." Perhaps "disciplined" is a better word.

[clo]

1 hour ago, ldubs said:

 

I agree with your general observation regarding Japan and some other Asian countries.  While I would not argue that Americans are more disciplined, in my recent experience most American's are wearing masks in public, or at least trying to adhere to the guidelines.  I just returned from visiting our grandchild in Los Angeles.  Even there we see most are complying with with masks and social distancing.  Rotten apples really are spoiling the barrel.      

Do you think that's more a West Coast phenomenon? And the Northeast?

[chipmaster]

2 hours ago, clo said:

Do you think that's more a West Coast phenomenon? And the Northeast?

 

I think the whole US narrative could have been so much better if we had rally together.  The US in the past was looked upon as one of the bastions of freedom and goodness where a cause could rally the country to sacrifice for the better of the world.

 

If only.. then I'd have gone to Canada for my 30th anniversary and likely had cruises lined up for this past summer and next too 😞

 

[Joebucks]

We always talk about learning from history, yet how many people learned anything in the past 20 years? Virtually none of these pandemics/endemics were contained by vaccine. There is no chance that COVID goes away. It will enter the normal rotation like every other strain we've had and is still here. It will likely become less deadly and/or we will start to achieve immunity.

[mammajamma2013]

2 hours ago, Joebucks said:

We always talk about learning from history, yet how many people learned anything in the past 20 years? Virtually none of these pandemics/endemics were contained by vaccine. There is no chance that COVID goes away. It will enter the normal rotation like every other strain we've had and is still here. It will likely become less deadly and/or we will start to achieve immunity.

I agree with your statement but will add that my hope is that there will be a viable vaccine (as there is for some flu strains) and some type of treatment along with a less deadly strain and natural immunity.

[mammajamma2013]

15 hours ago, clo said:

Do you think that's more a West Coast phenomenon? And the Northeast?

Are you asking about masks/social distancing compliance? I truly believe there are many more people in compliance than the US is being given credit for. I realize our numbers are ridiculously high, but it only takes a few careless/stupid people to spread the virus to a large number of other people.

 

Everyone I know is in compliance and people I see in the rare instances that I go out are mostly in compliance.  There are always the few that wear a mask under their noses (two out of 20. I count them because it's a compulsion).