Should Coronavirus Vaccination be Mandatory to Cruise?

[Toofarfromthesea]

5 hours ago, donaldsc said:

 

There is a wonder very small but interesting book out there called "How to Lie with Statistics"

 

- https://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistics-Darrell-Huff/dp/0393310728/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwwab7BRBAEiwAapqpTMxO0CD0TBVhYMK1d13BYu9SLs8O4a-W2WWylL-TCt504EFK9VtFJBoClyAQAvD_BwE&hvadid=241635027273&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9052936&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=4050307822486114941&hvtargid=kwd-96237380&hydadcr=21906_10171159&keywords=how+to+lie+with+statistics&qid=1600790107&sr=8-1&tag=googhydr-20#customerReviews.

 

Everyone should read it.

 

DON

 

Yup.  I don't know if they include deception by misapplication of percents, or not, but it is a well-known one.  Another little trick is presenting economic factors by household or per capita, depending on which supports the narrative of whoever is making the comparison.  And the ever popular shenanigans in labeling graphs by manipulating the scales.  And lots more.  In the modern age it has become an artform.

There was a similar book I read years ago that was excellent on polling tricks, called Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics, which is a well known Mark Twainism.

Ah, there it is:

 

https://www.amazon.com/Damned-Lies-Statistics-Untangling-Politicians-ebook/dp/B009CC6R3G/ref=sr_1_1?crid=QFR3RGWR0HH2&dchild=1&keywords=lies%2C+damn+lies%2C+and+statistics&qid=1600808753&sprefix=lies%2C+%2Caps%2C201&sr=8-1

[Toofarfromthesea]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

Well, I for one really liked math in school.

 

I ended up in college with a lot of very smart people who did not like math and/or were afraid of it. Got my only A+ final grade in an introductory statistics  course where I was told I was "thrown off the curve".

 

In 12th grade calculus, the answers were in the back of the book. We all looked at them, but I was the only one honest enough to say they did when the teacher asked. The obvious reason was to check you got it right; the less obvious one was when you could not figure it out and used the answer to work backwards to figure out how to do the problem. I actually got to use that principle in my work career. I worked in an tax prep office as a checker and emergency everything. My boss gave me a return to find where he had made an error (and I had missed it when checking it). I could not find it, so I worked backwards from what the IRS said the tax should be  AND FOUND THEIR ERROR.

 

So, not everyone rolls their eyes at math teachers.

 

Good for you.  Mathophiles are becoming an endangered species and it is always great to encounter a fellow traveler.  I really was nothing special as a math student until I hit geometry, which I regard as the first real math course (as opposed to arithmetic) because of the logic inherent in proofs and constructions.  But from then everything clicked.  Math major, actuary for 20+ years, math teacher for 15 years.  Now lazy SOB retired guy.  But I have been known to take a book of calculus problems with me on a cruise to work for relaxation and enjoyment.  Truly geeky.

Edited September 22, 2020 by Toofarfromthesea

[Toofarfromthesea]

And I'm putting my butt where my mouth is.  There is no vaccine and I have every intention on taking the 11/7/2020 MSC cruise out of Miami that I have booked, if it sails.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, lenquixote66 said:

I gave up driving nearly 18 years ago.Many people are so lazy.They drive 1/4 mile to buy a newspaper.Walking is so much better.Good exercise and healthier.When I was younger I walked between 8 and 15 miles a day.I am not referring to childhood.I walked till I was 70.

I am still walking and it's been a few years since I turned 70.

 

My parents still walked even after my father became legally blind at age 89. In fact, he fell and broke his hip (and survived! at not quite 98), and people asked me at the time if my folks were ok since they did not see them walking!

[ilikeanswers]

2 hours ago, sanger727 said:

3. again, my point was, if you rephrase those numbers and say that 4 Boeing 747s were crashing each week in the US and killing everyone on board (4 to represent all Covid deaths, not the half); you don’t think people would demand something be ‘done’ about these pointless and preventable deaths.

 

Two Boeing's crashed months apart and the whole company was forced to halt business till a thorough investigation was done while countries around the world cancelled their orders on that particular Boeing. Less people died than with COVID19 but somehow it was considered important enough to deal with the problem😳. 

[K32682]

Let's all take the same approach regardings deaths. 2,977 deaths on 9/11?  No biggie.  🙄

 

 

Edited September 22, 2020 by K32682

[ilikeanswers]

3 hours ago, KnowTheScore said:

You've had more than 100,000 deaths attributable to car accidents in the past 3 years.  I don;t see anyone taking any action over that.  Everyone is still driving.  I see no moves to lockdown motoring to prevent those 100,000 deaths.   We simply accept that they happen.  They are an accepted part of life despite the tragedy of every life lost.   Those who are unable to face up to such facts are simply cowards.

 

Seems the UK government disagrees with you in just accepting that car crash deaths just happen 😜

Road safety action plan announced to cut road deaths

[lenquixote66]

2 hours ago, ontheweb said:

I am still walking and it's been a few years since I turned 70.

 

My parents still walked even after my father became legally blind at age 89. In fact, he fell and broke his hip (and survived! at not quite 98), and people asked me at the time if my folks were ok since they did not see them walking!

I wish I could still walk.Last year with my wife holding me I did a Parkinsons walk and a brain cancer walk.Currently with her holding me I can only walk from my front door to the passenger seat in our car.

[D. B.]

Hello People !

 This may Not be the Forum to Ask this Question but it IS something I'm wondering about....

 One of the Possible Ways to Allow Us to Return to Cruising is for the Ships to operate at Reduced Capacity to avoid crowds.

 OK but If a Cruise is Sold Out Who will be Denied Boarding?

 Would it be those who Booked Last?

Those who Booked Inside Cabins (Less Profit) and not the high priced Cabin Guests?

 Based on those with the fewest Loyalty Points?

I guess only Time will Tell !

[Sue Do-Over]

If the cruise line mandates that all passengers have received a vaccine, we will see a wave of "but-I-can't" work-arounds.  

What would count?

* Already had the virus: has antibodies?  has antibodies at/over a specific threshold?

* Got a note (real or fictional) claiming that you cannot receive a vaccine?  They are sold online alongside the Service-Animal vests and certificates. (sarcasm intended)

* Had a vaccine approved in which country/countries?  That is, would Russia's rush-to-approved version be sufficient, or do you need multiples to be sure you have one approved for each country you will visit?

* How long before the cruise?  There is a time-gap while your body absorbs the vaccine before antibodies are at a sufficient level to offer protection.  Some are expected to require multiple doses.  And at some point, they may wear off (like a tetanus shot).  Not like they can administer them at the pier alongside testing...

 

I am definitely in favor of masks... with or without a vaccine, we all need to respect one another enough to wear a mask.  They're not expensive, are easy to obtain, don't interfere with other medications, and are simply a minor discomfort. 

Consider it in line with "no shoes, no shirt, no service" rules.  If you simply CHOOSE not to wear one consistently, over nose AND mouth, you can simply CHOOSE not to cruise.

[Sue Do-Over]

9 hours ago, donaldsc said:

 

There is a wonder very small but interesting book out there called "How to Lie with Statistics"

Everyone should read it.

 

DON

I work with data all day... and read "How to Lie with Statistics" as an undergrad in 1990 and again while earning my MBA in 2015.  I use examples from it regularly introducing my work to less experienced colleagues in healthcare.  It is a quick read and quite entertaining.

 

My favorite paraphrased example: [FACT] 3 in 4 households in a community has high-speed internet.

POV: What a travesty!  Due to a failure of leadership and cooperation, one-fourth of our community is struggling to engage online, and is missing out on countless opportunities!

POV: What incredible progress!  Due to great leadership and cooperation, we have provided high-speed access to three-quarters of our community, providing countless opportunities!

 

[Keksie]

1 hour ago, Sue Do-Over said:

 

 

My favorite paraphrased example: [FACT] 3 in 4 households in a community has high-speed internet.

POV: What a travesty!  Due to a failure of leadership and cooperation, one-fourth of our community is struggling to engage online, and is missing out on countless opportunities!

POV: What incredible progress!  Due to great leadership and cooperation, we have provided high-speed access to three-quarters of our community, providing countless opportunities!

 

There are only 4 households in the community and 1 household is comprised of 2 elderly people who do not have a computer.  

POV: everyone that wants internet has it.  

Data is so much fun to play with.

[ldubs]

On 9/21/2020 at 10:01 AM, KnowTheScore said:

 

The difference is just 14 people in a 1000 which is not much at all.

 

In my county that would be 15,000 people.  

[ldubs]

12 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

  I'll modify my my mortality rate example to illustrate this.  When the chances of dying are, say 2%, and some risk factor increases 25% your risk of dying increases to 2.5%, an increase of half a percent.  If the chances of dying are 40%, the same risk factor increase of 25% increases the chance of dying by 10% as opposed to the half a percent.  The effect of that percent risk increase is the same in both cases, but the end effect is far different.  

 

Far different yes.  And I understand the gamesmanship you are discussing.   But I think the point being made by some to comments like "14 per thousand is not much at all"  is that in context of a worldwide pandemic, even a 0.5% increase is represents a huge number of people.  The humanity that a 0.5% increase represents is too many to toss aside as insignificant.  I don't think you are saying that at all, but that seems to be the thinking of another poster.     

[iancal]

I believe the real question should be will countries insist that all foreign visitors have  a covid vaccination certificate.  

[ldubs]

4 minutes ago, iancal said:

I believe the real question should be will countries insist that all foreign visitors have  a covid vaccination certificate.  

 

That is a good question too.  I would say yes.   

[donaldsc]

The more interesting question is whether vaccines will be required to enter a public building, be required by employers to hold certain or all jobs, enter recreation areas, etc.  As far as I am concerned, your freedom not to take public health measures ends if it impacts my health.  You can decide not to take the vaccine when it becomes available as long as you do not come within 6 ft of me or my family.

 

DON

[ilikeanswers]

2 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

Far different yes.  And I understand the gamesmanship you are discussing.   But I think the point being made by some to comments like "14 per thousand is not much at all"  is that in context of a worldwide pandemic, even a 0.5% increase is represents a huge number of people.  The humanity that a 0.5% increase represents is too many to toss aside as insignificant.  I don't think you are saying that at all, but that seems to be the thinking of another poster.     

 

I think some people take the phrase A Single Death Is a Tragedy; A Million Deaths Is a Statistic a little too seriously 🙄

 

[sverigecruiser]

3 hours ago, donaldsc said:

The more interesting question is whether vaccines will be required to enter a public building, be required by employers to hold certain or all jobs, enter recreation areas, etc.  As far as I am concerned, your freedom not to take public health measures ends if it impacts my health.  You can decide not to take the vaccine when it becomes available as long as you do not come within 6 ft of me or my family.

 

DON

 

That may happen in the US but I think that in most countries that won't be possible.

[GrJ Berkshire]

This has to happen . Without taking the vaccine( as long as it's not medical decision ) these people must be made 21st century 'lepers' and barred from buildings and as this is cc from cruising without a vaccine certificate. If people opt out, then they must accept being society outsiders with limited access to many facilities- providing the vaccine works, hence why suggestions of an early vaccine is simply not going to occur, we must go through all the required science checks and balances.

[sanger727]

5 hours ago, donaldsc said:

The more interesting question is whether vaccines will be required to enter a public building, be required by employers to hold certain or all jobs, enter recreation areas, etc.  As far as I am concerned, your freedom not to take public health measures ends if it impacts my health.  You can decide not to take the vaccine when it becomes available as long as you do not come within 6 ft of me or my family.

 

DON

I don’t think it will ever be required to enter public buildings or recreation areas. Certain jobs? Yes. Most likely in health care and the armed forces. I do not work in health care but we sometimes supply security to local hospitals and if you take a spot in a hospital you are required to have your flu shot. I absolutely think it will be required for kids to go to public school and potentially some day cares. And I do think that it will become a standard entry requirement into other countries.

[ldubs]

4 hours ago, sanger727 said:

I don’t think it will ever be required to enter public buildings or recreation areas. Certain jobs? Yes. Most likely in health care and the armed forces. I do not work in health care but we sometimes supply security to local hospitals and if you take a spot in a hospital you are required to have your flu shot. I absolutely think it will be required for kids to go to public school and potentially some day cares. And I do think that it will become a standard entry requirement into other countries.

 

I can see a brand new excuse to get off jury duty.  

[lenquixote66]

5 hours ago, sanger727 said:

I don’t think it will ever be required to enter public buildings or recreation areas. Certain jobs? Yes. Most likely in health care and the armed forces. I do not work in health care but we sometimes supply security to local hospitals and if you take a spot in a hospital you are required to have your flu shot. I absolutely think it will be required for kids to go to public school and potentially some day cares. And I do think that it will become a standard entry requirement into other countries.

Definitely for hospital workers.

[SelectSys]

15 hours ago, iancal said:

I believe the real question should be will countries insist that all foreign visitors have  a covid vaccination certificate.  

 

Assuming an effective vaccine will be created, I think it will depend on the country.  As always economics and politics will drive entry requirements. 

 

In the near term I can see vaccination as a requirement for entry in those countries that have successfully controlled COVID.  I would see New Zealand and likely Australia in this camp.  Perhaps these vaccination requirements will go away if for some reason COVID is eradicated (unlikely) or mutates into something  less problematic (more likely) like the typical flu.

 

15 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

That is a good question too.  I would say yes.   

 

I agree it is a good question.  While debated at times these days, it seems to me that all countries should have the right to specify the requirements and control entry into their country for health or any other reason.  

[clo]

Just saw this about a mutation that may make COVID more contagious.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2020/09/23/coronavirus-may-have-mutated-to-become-more-contagious-study-finds/#7f899fa5365c