Vaccination Certification?

[Tippyton]

8 hours ago, clo said:

But that doesn't mean you're immune.

Only time will tell - vaccine or previous health history.  LOCK UP OR WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!  Science says those who had SARS 1 are still immune 17 years later.  Science says those who are immune to SARS 1 are immune to SARS 2.  Science says SARS 1, MERS, and SARS 2 are very closely related.  Tippyton didn't take Kommon Kore math and, through deductive reasoning and paying attention to multiple experts thinks that immunity will last.  You can't tell me with a straight face that natural immunity borne out of having the virus is less efficacious than a man-made vaccine?  Really?

[cruisemom42]

29 minutes ago, Tippyton said:

Only time will tell - vaccine or previous health history.  LOCK UP OR WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!  Science says those who had SARS 1 are still immune 17 years later.  Science says those who are immune to SARS 1 are immune to SARS 2.  Science says SARS 1, MERS, and SARS 2 are very closely related.  Tippyton didn't take Kommon Kore math and, through deductive reasoning and paying attention to multiple experts thinks that immunity will last.  You can't tell me with a straight face that natural immunity borne out of having the virus is less efficacious than a man-made vaccine?  Really?

 

Science says COVID could mutate and previous infection (and vaccination) would not necessarily confer immunity. Another round would be required, e.g., influenza.

 

[Hlitner]

On 12/1/2020 at 3:41 PM, KnowTheScore said:

 

Nothing you have stated in that spiel negates or refutes the FACT that people who are vaccinated CAN and DO still spread viruses and disease.

 

And that's all we really need to know.

 

Whether you personally think they will only spread COVID a little bit is really academic.  If they CAN do it they WILL do it and that clearly poses a public health hazard to others.

 

Consequently I cannot envisage any situation where a person waving a worthless vaccination certificate can be treated any different from anyone else.  The results could be catastrophic and more importantly for businesses could lead to enormous costly libel cases.

 

Just imagine.

 

Cruise line allows a vaccinated person to waltz on board without getting tested prior to embarkation.  Person turns out to be Covid positive.     Unthinkable.

 

It's just not going to happen.

 

Vaccinated or not we will ALL still represent a risk and so the only sure fire way of controlling things is to properly test people using good reliable testing processes (and those need greatly improving)

 

So those ranting and raving about people who are going to refuse the vaccines need to get a dose of reality imo.   No vaccine is 100% effective so even a percentage of the vaccinated people will be unprotected.   That person you are sat next to in the bar might still represent a risk to you.  The only way to tell is to properly test people before and during every cruise and it doesn't matter whether people are vaccinated or not to do that.

 

We respectfully disagree with much of what you posted.  Regarding testing, no test is accurate for several days after exposure so even the best testing will not completely prevent COVID cases from getting aboard....especially since folks have a higher chance of exposure during travel to a port.  The fast antigen tests that can be done at the port have at least a 20% false negative problem and it is actually much higher since nobody will test positive for 3-6 days after exposure.  PCR tests take many hours or days for results and also will not detect recently (2-5 days) exposed folks.  This is likely what caused many COVID cases (over 160) on the limited European cruises where strict testing measures were utilized.

 

As to vaccines, early reports are that several vaccines are 90%+ effective.  This is rare among vaccines and is actually very exciting news.  Both Pfizer and Moderna (using the new mRNA technique in their vaccine) have reported zero deaths among their test subjects.  Mandating vaccinations for cruisers will almost certainly be part of future CDC Guidelines.  But cruise lines would mandate vaccinations on their own because it is the best way to reduce their own financial risk from COVID cases aboard (which would likely require stopping the cruise and involve expensive delays, quarantines, etc).   

 

As to your comment about a percentage of vaccinated being unprotected, while that is certainly possible when you get above approximate 80% effective rates you also get benefits of so-called herd immunity.   With vaccines over 90% effective and mandated vaccinations for all aboard that herd immunity becomes a near certainty.  The one caveat is that it takes about 1 month after vaccination for a person to reach a high level of immunity so we may not only see mandates but those mandates may require proof of vaccination several weeks before a cruise.  Providing instant vaccination at the port would not be a viable approach.

 

Hank

[bigrednole]

The news today states that everyone that gets the vaccine will receive a vaccination card. That should take care of any need for verification. The black market for fake vaccination cards may be huge soon.

[Tippyton]

52 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Science says COVID could mutate and previous infection (and vaccination) would not necessarily confer immunity. Another round would be required, e.g., influenza.

 

Demonstrated facts and "could" are different.  Science says that Covid2 has mutated already and science says the current immunity schemas are unaffected by these mutations. In probability and statistics, the "could" outcomes are essentially infinite.  Unfortunately our public policy is based on "could" which makes it ridiculous which is also why people are pissed about it.  

Source:  Am scientist 

[evandbob]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/details-emerging-on-vaccine-cards-that-will-accompany-inoculations/ar-BB1bBssQ?li=BBnbcA1

 

Claims the Feds will issue a paper card as proof of vax.  Other reports I've read say a digital add on to a passport is also a possibility.

 

 

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, Tippyton said:

Source:  Am scientist 

 

🙄

 

What kind?

[ldubs]

13 hours ago, Tippyton said:

 I would be ok with the US providing vaccines to the smaller Caribbean countries - St. Lucia, Grenadines, etc.  It would provide both cruisers and cruise destinations with FREEDOM and peace of mind.

 

Hmmm, when it comes to distribution of a vaccine, I think "cruising" should be at the bottom of the priority list.  

[ilikeanswers]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

What kind?

 

Dr Google😜

[SelectSys]

5 hours ago, Tippyton said:

Only time will tell - vaccine or previous health history.  LOCK UP OR WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!  ...  Tippyton didn't take Kommon Kore math and, through deductive reasoning and paying attention to multiple experts thinks that immunity will last.  You can't tell me with a straight face that natural immunity borne out of having the virus is less efficacious than a man-made vaccine?  Really?

 

It should be obvious that the death rate for children basically ensures that COVID is not the extinction event for humanity!  Like many other diseases, it seems to prey hardest on those past their reproductive prime.  Yikes, I resemble that last statement!

 

I think the key is that vaccination speeds the process by which immunity is created not that it is better than natural immunity.  Vaccines,  I would think, are also designed to work in such a manner that one doesn't need to experience the full impact of the disease.

 

BTW - I feel fortunate to have studied basic arithmetic under the watchful (menacing?) eye of nuns in a bygone era.  They were not very accepting of excuses. 

 

4 hours ago, Hlitner said:

... The one caveat is that it takes about 1 month after vaccination for a person to reach a high level of immunity so we may not only see mandates but those mandates may require proof of vaccination several weeks before a cruise.  Providing instant vaccination at the port would not be a viable approach.

 

This is why the lines will not be able to start up super fast.  They will depend on crew being vaccinated in their home countries and/or performing inoculations on board and then have the whole crew wait it out in isolation. 

 

4 hours ago, bigrednole said:

The news today states that everyone that gets the vaccine will receive a vaccination card. That should take care of any need for verification. The black market for fake vaccination cards may be huge soon.

 

My dark side suggests this will at least be attempted by some.  

 

3 hours ago, Tippyton said:

...  In probability and statistics, the "could" outcomes are essentially infinite.  Unfortunately our public policy is based on "could" which makes it ridiculous which is also why people are pissed about it.  

Source:  Am scientist 

 

As a scientist, you know that while the distribution of possible outcomes may in fact be infinite, the likelihood/probability of particular outcomes are typically not uniform. 

 

Decision making under uncertainty is a well studied science (art?) and provides statistical methods of pruning out unlikely outcomes.  Are these techniques perfect?  Of course not.  Is it better than nothing in terms of policy?  Sometimes depending on how much background information is available.

 

My own view is that people get upset in that politicians tend to overstate the predictive power of the "science" justifying their policy when in reality the models behind the scenes driving those decisions aren't all that powerful.  

 

Here is link to one of the field's gurus who's work I studied back in university all those many years ago.. http://www.glennshafer.com/books/amte.html  (thanks again to those nuns for giving me the necessary background to succeed in school)

 

3 hours ago, KnowTheScore said:

   Do we seriously think that logistically they will be able to cope with vaccinating the entire population EVERY YEAR and have reliable IT systems in place to dutifully track who has had which vaccines and when?

 

This will be an incredibly difficult challenge.  Perhaps we can borrow systems from the Chinese to do this tracking.  My understanding is that they are quite good at tracking their population.

Edited December 3, 2020 by SelectSys

[slidergirl]

Re: instant vaccinations at port:

Not possible yet as the soon-to-be-available vaccines require 2 doses, given weeks apart.  Some company will have to come up with a single dose vaccine and get it through the process.  Since multiple vaccines are in the pipeline already through "Warp Speed", I'm not sure the government will put out money for more to get done faster.  MHO.

 

And, regarding the vaccines being so people don't get COVID and DIE, how about removing the DIE?  Unless you are OK with suffering through months of severe illness and having to undergo physical therapy to relearn how to walk, eat, have lifetime heart damage or have to use a feeding tube for years...   

 

Now some on our COVID group are working in an "experiment" on the effects of the vaccines on people who have COVID.  It is looking at the possible effects of re-energizing the remainder of COVID and if it can cause harm.  

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, slidergirl said:

Re: instant vaccinations at port:

Not possible yet as the soon-to-be-available vaccines require 2 doses, given weeks apart.  Some company will have to come up with a single dose vaccine and get it through the process.  Since multiple vaccines are in the pipeline already through "Warp Speed", I'm not sure the government will put out money for more to get done faster.  MHO.

 

 

I believe Johnson & Johnson are already working on a vaccine that will only require one shot. I do not know how close they are to requesting approval, but it is already a part of warp speed.

[Tippyton]

1 hour ago, SelectSys said:

 

It should be obvious that the death rate for children basically ensures that COVID is not the extinction event for humanity!  Like many other diseases, it seems to prey hardest on those past their reproductive prime.  Yikes, I resemble that last statement!

 

I think the key is that vaccination speeds the process by which immunity is created not that it is better than natural immunity.  Vaccines,  I would think, are also designed to work in such a manner that one doesn't need to experience the full impact of the disease.

 

BTW - I feel fortunate to have studied basic arithmetic under the watchful (menacing?) eye of nuns in a bygone era.  They were not very accepting of excuses. 

 

 

This is why the lines will not be able to start up super fast.  They will depend on crew being vaccinated in their home countries and/or performing inoculations on board and then have the whole crew wait it out in isolation. 

 

 

My dark side suggests this will at least be attempted by some.  

 

 

As a scientist, you know that while the distribution of possible outcomes may in fact be infinite, the likelihood/probability of particular outcomes are typically not uniform. 

 

Decision making under uncertainty is a well studied science (art?) and provides statistical methods of pruning out unlikely outcomes.  Are these techniques perfect?  Of course not.  Is it better than nothing in terms of policy?  Sometimes depending on how much background information is available.

 

My own view is that people get upset in that politicians tend to overstate the predictive power of the "science" justifying their policy when in reality the models behind the scenes driving those decisions aren't all that powerful.  

 

Here is link to one of the field's gurus who's work I studied back in university all those many years ago.. http://www.glennshafer.com/books/amte.html  (thanks again to those nuns for giving me the necessary background to succeed in school)

 

 

This will be an incredibly difficult challenge.  Perhaps we can borrow systems from the Chinese to do this tracking.  My understanding is that they are quite good at tracking their population.

Great analysis!!  I find it somewhat amusing now all the dancing around what to do with the people that have had it already, like myself.  P.S.  I have an draft vaccine certificate template built.  See my page on EBay (J/K....sort of 😁)

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, slidergirl said:

 

 

And, regarding the vaccines being so people don't get COVID and DIE, how about removing the DIE?  Unless you are OK with suffering through months of severe illness and having to undergo physical therapy to relearn how to walk, eat, have lifetime heart damage or have to use a feeding tube for years...   

 

Now some on our COVID group are working in an "experiment" on the effects of the vaccines on people who have COVID.  It is looking at the possible effects of re-energizing the remainder of COVID and if it can cause harm.  

Good luck with your recovery. I am sure you are tired of reading that you and those in your group are just "anecdotes" as everyone who has had it now has long term immunity.

 

That sounds like an interesting experiment. One hopes that more harm is not done.

[klfrodo]

Question

 

Are these "vaccination" records that folks are talking about, just a record of when/where/who got the vaccination?

Or do these records require a proof of titer or antibody post vaccination?

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, klfrodo said:

Question

 

Are these "vaccination" records that folks are talking about, just a record of when/where/who got the vaccination?

Or do these records require a proof of titer or antibody post vaccination?

I have heard that the vaccine cards will specify the type vaccine, dates of shots, and possibly the lot of the vaccine.  Nobody seems to be talking much about antibody testing which apparently is not a very accurate test.  In fact, the CDC does not recommend antibody testing should be used as an indication of immunity.

 

Hank

[clo]

8 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Science says COVID could mutate and previous infection (and vaccination) would not necessarily confer immunity. Another round would be required, e.g., influenza.

 

Exactly.

[clo]

3 hours ago, SelectSys said:

BTW - I feel fortunate to have studied basic arithmetic under the watchful (menacing?) eye of nuns in a bygone era.  They were not very accepting of excuses. 

 

Ditto!!!!!

[klfrodo]

36 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I have heard that the vaccine cards will specify the type vaccine, dates of shots, and possibly the lot of the vaccine.  Nobody seems to be talking much about antibody testing which apparently is not a very accurate test.  In fact, the CDC does not recommend antibody testing should be used as an indication of immunity.

 

Hank

Not meant to be a hostile argument, just a continuation of the conversation.

 

Employers (in some instances) require lab results from professional labs to prove titer/antibody for various diseases such as HEP B/C, Measles, Rubella, TB, Chicken Pox, etc. 

Can't imagine why this couldn't be taken further if requesting international travel.

[Hlitner]

8 minutes ago, klfrodo said:

Not meant to be a hostile argument, just a continuation of the conversation.

 

Employers (in some instances) require lab results from professional labs to prove titer/antibody for various diseases such as HEP B/C, Measles, Rubella, TB, Chicken Pox, etc. 

Can't imagine why this couldn't be taken further if requesting international travel.

Anything is possible but there is some history to mandatory vaccination requirements and they never involved titer/antibody testing.  The most recent requirement we had involved Yellow Fever vaccination which was simply proved by having possession of an Internationally accepted Yellow Fever Vaccination booklet/document.  The Chinese have already implemented (domestically) electronic verification (generally done via smartphone).  Japan is also considering the use of smartphone apps for both vaccines and tracking visitors.  This can easily be tied into a national (or international) data base.  

 

Are we going to continue with paper documents for COVID?  While that seems to be where we are headed, counterfeit documents in Europe are causing concern.  Electronic documents make fraud a bit more difficult (but still possible) but electronic documents tied into remote data bases are pretty secure.  We shall all have to see how this plays out.   But I do believe that anti-vaxers are going to have a tough time with most travel by air and sea as well as moving across borders.  Until now there has generally not been a concerted effort to deal with anti-vaxers but I think COVID is going to be a big game changer.  I suspect that a shot record (electronic or hard copy) will become as important to international travel as a Passport.

 

Hank

[Hlitner]

44 minutes ago, klfrodo said:

Not meant to be a hostile argument, just a continuation of the conversation.

 

Employers (in some instances) require lab results from professional labs to prove titer/antibody for various diseases such as HEP B/C, Measles, Rubella, TB, Chicken Pox, etc. 

Can't imagine why this couldn't be taken further if requesting international travel.

Just a thought but there are about 200 countries in the world and many of them do not have easy access to any lab much less one capable of conducting titer/antibodies.   When it comes to International Travel it would likely be WHO or another arm of the UN that would establish some type of worldwide standard that would make it relatively easy for compliance.  If each country goes off in its own direction (which is what has happened with COVID) then travel will become very complicated.

 

Hank

[klfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Just a thought but there are about 200 countries in the world and many of them do not have easy access to any lab much less one capable of conducting titer/antibodies.   When it comes to International Travel it would likely be WHO or another arm of the UN that would establish some type of worldwide standard that would make it relatively easy for compliance.  If each country goes off in its own direction (which is what has happened with COVID) then travel will become very complicated.

 

Hank

Thank you for sharing you vast knowledge

[slidergirl]

4 hours ago, ontheweb said:

I believe Johnson & Johnson are already working on a vaccine that will only require one shot. I do not know how close they are to requesting approval, but it is already a part of warp speed.

I'm not sure that J&J wasn't part of Warp Speed, but I believe the US pre-purchased doses.  In any case, so far, it sounds like we won't have a choice on which one we get.  Sending some of each vaccine to each hospital/pharmacy/vaccination point is most likely not possible.  You will get what was sent to your area.  So, if your area does not have a single-dose, rapid acting vaccine, what are you going to do?

[jtwind]

11 hours ago, bigrednole said:

The news today states that everyone that gets the vaccine will receive a vaccination card. That should take care of any need for verification. The black market for fake vaccination cards may be huge soon.

 

Why won't they just scan for the chip that is placed in our bodies when we are injected with the vaccine?

[slidergirl]

6 hours ago, ontheweb said:

I believe Johnson & Johnson are already working on a vaccine that will only require one shot. I do not know how close they are to requesting approval, but it is already a part of warp speed.

J&J was part of Warp Speed, Pfizer was not - it didn't take money as it got it's funding from Germany.  My boo boo.  But J&J is a little behind the others in any case.