Princess should think twice about Alaska cruises in 2021

[cruising deacon]

Princess should think long and hard about resuming Alaska cruises in 2021.

 

This past week another SMALL cruise tried it in Alaska, and didn't make it.

 

The 63 passengers and crew aboard the UnCruise Adventures' ship were just three days into their Alaskan vacation when they

were informed Wednesday the guest had tested positive and they would have to return to port.

 

How could they expect a cruise of thousands to be able to control Covid-19 when a cruise of only 63 couldn't.

 

Alaska is my number one place to cruise, of my more than 50 cruises over 1/3 were to Alaska. 

But I won't be cruising there in 2021 and maybe never again.  My life is worth more than that.

[cruising deacon]

Even Americans can't get back home after 5 months stuck at sea.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/12000-cruise-ship-workers-stuck-on-boats

 

 

[voljeep]

2 minutes ago, cruising deacon said:

Even Americans can't get back home after 5 months stuck at sea.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/12000-cruise-ship-workers-stuck-on-boats

 

 

The Coast Guard estimates that 209 Americans are still on board 37 of the ships that are either in the vicinity of a U.S. port or have the potential to arrive at a port in this country. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, however, reportedly said that it is only aware of 53 Americans spread across 22 ships.

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A CDC spokesperson told USA Today that it is unclear how many of the Americans still at sea are workers that the cruise companies have deemed necessary to keep the ships operational, and how many are simply stuck due to their circumstances.

[bubbapuck]

I heard about this. The person tested before his trip (negative) then after he got into the Juneau. The tests results were not avilable before he got on. He must have gotten it during his plane trip. Quicker test results or vaccines are key to this. I have Alaska planned for 2021 and am staying positive for now.

Edited August 9, 2020 by bubbapuck

[1025cruise]

I fully expect that by the 2021 Alaska season that the Covid forecast will be a lot different.

[memoak]

If we have a vaccine and the cruise lines require proof of vaccination then we will be cruising in 2021. If not then no cruises 

[Ombud]

My Alaskan cruise is a year off and has $534 + FCC on it. If we still aren't cruising in 12 months than I think cruise ships will go under and the FCC will be worthless

[PurpleHays]

We have a 2021 Alaska cruise booked. Hubby has signed up to be in a vaccine study. I will wait until long term effects are better known due to my own chronic lung condition (it's well controlled) before I get a new vaccine. I/we don't have a problem masking, social distancing, or repeatedly washing hands--I've been an RN for 30+ years, so it's a long-ingrained habit. Hubby is losing his sight and Alaska is on his bucket list. I'd like to cross it off and am willing to make personal "sacrifices" in order to do so.

 

That being said, we only put the deposit down so far, plus trip insurance--all refundable. We will decide after the first of the year whether we will cruise or not. It all depends on what things look like, and even if cruising has restarted. If it hasn't, we'll put that money toward another vacation, preferably somewhere warm--which is my first choice anyway.

[franktown]

4 hours ago, memoak said:

If we have a vaccine and the cruise lines require proof of vaccination then we will be cruising in 2021. If not then no cruises 

Had this discussion with my brother today.  The FDA said they would give emergency approve to a vaccine that is at least 50% effective that did not have significant side effects.  I said that was like flipping a coin and even if I was vaccinated I would not cruise if a vaccine was only 50 or even 70% effective.  Just curious what others think.

[jagoffee]

5 hours ago, memoak said:

If we have a vaccine and the cruise lines require proof of vaccination then we will be cruising in 2021. If not then no cruises 

You had better plan to stop cruising based on that criteria.

[cruzsnooze]

15 minutes ago, franktown said:

Had this discussion with my brother today.  The FDA said they would give emergency approve to a vaccine that is at least 50% effective that did not have significant side effects.  I said that was like flipping a coin and even if I was vaccinated I would not cruise if a vaccine was only 50 or even 70% effective.  Just curious what others think.

70% effective would be a good sign. Another percent of people have already recovered and another percent were exposed and probably have immunity so the percent goes up like a herd immunity essentially.

[caribill]

12 hours ago, bubbapuck said:

I heard about this. The person tested before his trip (negative) then after he got into the Juneau. The tests results were not avilable before he got on. He must have gotten it during his plane trip. Quicker test results or vaccines are key to this. I have Alaska planned for 2021 and am staying positive for now.

 

No, the person must have had it a day or two before stepping on the plane.

 

If the person caught it on the plane, it would not be detectable when getting to Juneau or a day or two later.

[cruising deacon]

I am glad to see a lot of meaningful thought went into all of your plans about cruising in the future.  It gives me hope that not all cruisers are willing to RISK IT ALL just to be cruising again.  

[Hlitner]

20 hours ago, 1025cruise said:

I fully expect that by the 2021 Alaska season that the Covid forecast will be a lot different.

Why?

 

Hank

[greenie082756]

I think that in a years time when the cruising will start again in Alaska that the virus will be pretty much either gone, under control levels or have a vaccine.

 

We were suppose to be in Alaska right now however...you know the rest.

We will book another for July 2021. If things around the world do not get better, then obviously we will not be going to Alaska.

 

I think its all a wait and see. 

[Linsifer]

We’ve had a cruise to Alaska out of SF booked for August 2021 for over a year now.  Like many here, we’re going to wait and see what happens with this virus before even considering it.  I’m keeping my hopes up that it will happen, but it’s going to take a lot to convince me to step on the Ruby in a year.  

[sanger727]

On 8/9/2020 at 11:56 AM, bubbapuck said:

I heard about this. The person tested before his trip (negative) then after he got into the Juneau. The tests results were not avilable before he got on. He must have gotten it during his plane trip. Quicker test results or vaccines are key to this. I have Alaska planned for 2021 and am staying positive for now.

 

You can certainly be exposed and carrying the virus and test negative. There's no guarantee that he did not have covid prior to starting his trip. That's why I think that putting much faith in all this pre-trip testing is a mistake. It's bit a like temperature taking, it may catch a couple people but plenty could still slip through because on the specific day they were tested they didn't have a fever or weren't shedding sufficient virus particles for a positive test.

[cruisequeen4ever]

The hope is that the summer of 2021 will be better, no guarantees of course.

[satxdiver]

We are signed up for an August 2021 cruise to AK and hope that the cruiseline will have it all sorted out.  If the ship sails we will be on it. 

[npcl]

On 8/9/2020 at 8:56 AM, bubbapuck said:

I heard about this. The person tested before his trip (negative) then after he got into the Juneau. The tests results were not avilable before he got on. He must have gotten it during his plane trip. Quicker test results or vaccines are key to this. I have Alaska planned for 2021 and am staying positive for now.

It is rather unlikely that he got it during his flight, since he tested as soon as he landed in Alaska. Either his first test was a false negative or he contracted during the first couple of days after that test (taken 5 days before trip). 

[npcl]

7 hours ago, sanger727 said:

 

You can certainly be exposed and carrying the virus and test negative. There's no guarantee that he did not have covid prior to starting his trip. That's why I think that putting much faith in all this pre-trip testing is a mistake. It's bit a like temperature taking, it may catch a couple people but plenty could still slip through because on the specific day they were tested they didn't have a fever or weren't shedding sufficient virus particles for a positive test.

According to one study the best you get out of a PCR test is a 20% false negative rate on day 8 of infection (worse before and after that time)  Median result in one study is 38% false negative on first day of symptoms.

[Hlitner]

2 hours ago, npcl said:

It is rather unlikely that he got it during his flight, since he tested as soon as he landed in Alaska. Either his first test was a false negative or he contracted during the first couple of days after that test (taken 5 days before trip). 

As I recall (and my memory is not what it once was) he tested negative on a PCR test that he took before leaving home for Alaska.  This was required to be done within 5 days of the trip.  Once he arrived in Alaska he received a 2nd PCR test (required by the cruise line) but embarked on the cruise prior to getting the test results.  It was only after the ship sailed that they finally got the test results (from the 2nd test) which was positive.  At that point the ship turned back to Juneau where everyone was to be quarantined in a hotel.   I think what is important here is that this cruise line followed the most stringent measures used by any line.  In fact, most of the lines starting up in Europe do not even require any passenger testing other then a quick temperature test (darn near worthless).

 

Hank

[Hlitner]

On 8/9/2020 at 10:52 PM, franktown said:

Had this discussion with my brother today.  The FDA said they would give emergency approve to a vaccine that is at least 50% effective that did not have significant side effects.  I said that was like flipping a coin and even if I was vaccinated I would not cruise if a vaccine was only 50 or even 70% effective.  Just curious what others think.

I think much of the public would be shocked if they knew the efficacy of many common vaccines.  But a 50% efficacy rate is not unusual.  In fact, in most years the basic flu vaccine is likely about 50% effective.  The first Shingles vaccine (and that darn shot cost me about $300) was only about 50% effective.  The first pneumonia vaccine (primarily given to seniors) was only about 50% effective.    Very few vaccines are more then 90% effective (I think the MMR Vaccine is about the most effective).

 

So why get a shot that is only 50% effective?  I once went to a lecture on the subject and it was quite interesting.  Suffice it to say that a vaccine that works about half the time would ultimately reduce a disease by far more then 50%.  It gets into more complex math about R Naught (a measure of contagion) and some other formulas.   But suffice it to say if 50% of the passengers on a ship had immunity, the odds of the spread of that disease would be diminished by more then 50%.  Go figure.

 

Your comment about not cruising is interesting.   There are few things in life that come without risk.  Many of life's decisions are simply a matter of risk/benefit and your own risk tolerance.  There are folks who will not go on cruises because they will not take the risk of flying to a port.  There are others who do not go on ships because they are concerned about the risk of the ship sinking.  DW and I travel all over the world (on and off cruises) and generally do our own thing on land (we do not like tours).  Many others tell us they do not like taking the "risk" of doing anything on their own.    So to answer your specific question, DW and I would certainly cruise if everyone were vaccinated with a vaccine that was 70% effective.  As to 50%, we might be willing to do that on a more spacious ship like with Seabourn but might have issues with a crowded mass market vessel.  Again, it comes down to one's own risk tolerance.

 

Hank

[DrivesLikeMario]

The health of passengers for the AK season in 9 months could be completely different than it is now.  All we can do is wait and see how well the vaccines get distributed and the efficacy of them.

[cruising deacon]

I read in some other post last week that Princess was going to have a 48 hour sale on Alaska cruises in the 2021 season starting on August 11.  Either it didn't happen, or their SALE PRICES are higher than the last time I checked on an Alaska cruise.