Carnival Stock Price Dropping

[Daniel A]

25 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

The form says Feb 29, 2021.  Which doesn’t exist, but I assume was meant as a year from tomorrow.

I stand corrected, it does say Feb 29 of next year.  Mea Culpa...

[satxdiver]

Carnival stock right now is $31.71 which is a steal if you cruise on any Carnival Corp ships.  Carnival owns over 100 ships right now.  It is getting close to 2008 prices when we bought it.  It appears to holding near $32 for the last two or so days.  

[Justalone]

My broker suggested CCL will soon dip to $8 or less.   And may cut the annual dividend to zero.  

On Board Credit benefit will do no good if no one is cruising.

It will take years for CCL, if they don’t go bankrupt, to rebound from losses....and return to profitability..  unless one can wait 10-20 years if you currently have CCL stock.   Due to soon to be announced Corona virus as a world wide pandemic, she  advised to avoid all cruise company stocks as well as some airline stocks. She says  for now travel industry sector as a whole is too risky to invest in.

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Justalone

[ed01106]

20 minutes ago, Justalone said:

My broker suggested CCL will soon dip to $8 or less.   And may cut the annual dividend to zero.  

On Board Credit benefit will do no good if no one is cruising.

It will take years for CCL, if they don’t go bankrupt, to rebound from losses....and return to profitability..  unless one can wait 10-20 years if you currently have CCL stock.   Due to soon to be announced Corona virus as a world wide pandemic, she  advised to avoid all cruise company stocks as well as some airline stocks. She says  for now travel industry sector as a whole is too risky to invest in.

 

This is pure speculation. 

 

I tend to agree we haven’t seen the bottom of the tourism stocks but reality is your broker doesn’t know the future.

[dockman]

Yeah and my broker told me several years ago not to buy at $33....i did anyway, got lots of OBC, dividends and the stock was selling for 60+ in a few years.

 

If brokers are so smart why do they even have to work?  Why not just make millions with their own advice?

[ehogan]

We bought at $23 after the Concordia disaster and have really benefited from the OBC perk that comes with holding shares.  We have made up more than the cost of the shares over the years.  This might be a good buying opportunity for some but better to wait a while and see where it goes.

 

As dedicated cruisers we are sorry that this industry will take a severe hit.  We would like to continue cruising but since we are over 70 it would be wise for us to take a break now and see how this plays out. We are cancelling our two cruises for later this year.

[voljeep]

again, buy it in your retirement account and let it ride

[ed01106]

18 hours ago, dockman said:

 My guess is that if any cruise lines go bankrupt it will be the smaller ones not CCL.  Should that happen CCL may well buy up any bankrupt cruise lines or there could even be a merger with larger lines.

 

I am buying  at low 30's and betting that within five years or less the stock will be $60++.   Of course NOBODY knows but personally I think the odds of CCL going bankrupt are slim to none.

The key to weathering a down turn is not the size of the company but cash and debt profile.  A small cruise line with very little debt would be better able to handle a downturn then a large highly leveraged one.  And CCL is highly leveraged.  Also CCL is getting hit with multiple expensive problems.

 

Also in the current environment small ships could become relatively attractive compared to large megaships.  A ship with 600 passengers is less likely to have a sick passenger than one with 3000.  

 

Plus many of the smaller lines business model is built on repeat customers that already have 20+ cruises. Much of CCL depends on attracting new cruisers, and that is going to be hard in this environment.   

[travelhound]

The stock has rebounded nicely today...up almost 4% while the market as a whole is still down. The best time to buy is when all of the sellers are out and the buyers are coming in. It's down 50% from it's high so it's not buying at the high. I don't think we're near this thing being called a pandemic.

 

Seeking Alpha had a post calling it a high risk trade but also a high reward trade with asymmetric reward, meaning more upside potential than downside. Of course, no one has a crystal ball and this all a bit of Vegas without the free drinks.

 

To the poster who asked about getting OBC for a cruise in a month...fax it in. We just bought the stock last Friday. Our cruise is the 22nd. Faxed it in on Monday and within. 2 hours it showed up on my account.

Edited February 28, 2020 by travelhound

[Wishing on a star]

I do think that the two people in a cabin should each be able to get the OBC, if they both have the 100 shares of stock in their name. (200 shares.  Not, for example, husband and wife who jointly own the 100 shares)

 

And, yes, this whole disaster will be a buy opportunity.

I wish we had sold ours earlier.

I do intend to buy again when things begin to settle.

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Wishing on a star

[caribill]

5 hours ago, Daniel A said:

 

That sail by date has been there for a while.  The announcement says that bookings must be made by tomorrow.  But, this is Princess; let's see if they actually follow their own policy.

 

Actually, it says by February 29, 2021, a date that does not exist.

[caribill]

38 minutes ago, travelhound said:

The stock has rebounded nicely today...up almost 4% while the market as a whole is still down. The best time to buy is when all of the sellers are out and the buyers are coming in. It's down 50% from it's high so it's not buying at the high.

 

If a  cruise was on sale, then many people would book a cruise.

 

Well, the CCL stock is on sale now. A good time to get some.

[KevintheIrishDJ]

Dropped is a polite way of putting it.

[Rick&Jeannie]

I am considering the stock *strictly* to gain the shareholder credit.  I will try to have it funded with existing funds within my IRA.  Given this, I assume I should be jumping on this now, right?  Am I missing something? Am I crazy?

[Daniel A]

12 minutes ago, Rick&Jeannie said:

I am considering the stock *strictly* to gain the shareholder credit.  I will try to have it funded with existing funds within my IRA.  Given this, I assume I should be jumping on this now, right?  Am I missing something? Am I crazy?

I don't think anyone can really answer your question with certainty.  All I can say is I originally bought at $60/share.  I haven't lost anything yet as I haven't sold.  I just bought an equal amount of stock today at $32/share so hopefully when/if CCL stock goes back up to $46/share, I'll be whole again.  (But I was never putting the 'rent money' into it to begin with.)  I don't know if this helps.

[npcl]

5 hours ago, satxdiver said:

Carnival stock right now is $31.71 which is a steal if you cruise on any Carnival Corp ships.  Carnival owns over 100 ships right now.  It is getting close to 2008 prices when we bought it.  It appears to holding near $32 for the last two or so days.  

I would wait and see if it retests the low near 30 and holds.  This seems more like a dead cat bounce due to some short selling covering, instead of a placement of a true bottom.

[Thrak]

We bought at $37.05. At the end of this year we will have recovered the entire investment via OBC and dividends. (We will have $400 Shareholder OBC coming in November/December.) After that it is all gravy. The amount of interest we would have potentially earned on $3,705 is negligible. The stock price is down. I don't count on the dividend continuing. I do plan on continuing to sail and will pick up another $350 in Shareholder OBC next May/June. Life is good.

[Daniel A]

1 hour ago, Thrak said:

We bought at $37.05. At the end of this year we will have recovered the entire investment via OBC and dividends. (We will have $400 Shareholder OBC coming in November/December.) After that it is all gravy. The amount of interest we would have potentially earned on $3,705 is negligible. The stock price is down. I don't count on the dividend continuing. I do plan on continuing to sail and will pick up another $350 in Shareholder OBC next May/June. Life is good.

I bought today and all I need is for the stock to go up another $12 and at least I've broken even from when I bought at $60 in October 2018.  Keeping my fingers crossed...

[Ombud]

6 hours ago, Justalone said:

My broker suggested CCL will soon dip to $8 or less.   And may cut the annual dividend to zero.  

If your broker had a crystal ball, he wouldn't still be just a broker 🤣

[oskidunker]

Good then i can buy 100 shares for $800.00. 

[kywildcatfanone]

I bought my for $29 a share back in 2010.  It had gotten as high as $65 or so a couple of years ago.  Can't believe it has fell this far, but I bought it for the OBC, so it's worked out for us either way.

[Colo Cruiser]

8 hours ago, Justalone said:

My broker suggested CCL will soon dip to $8 or less.   And may cut the annual dividend to zero.  

On Board Credit benefit will do no good if no one is cruising.

It will take years for CCL, if they don’t go bankrupt, to rebound from losses....and return to profitability..  unless one can wait 10-20 years if you currently have CCL stock.   Due to soon to be announced Corona virus as a world wide pandemic, she  advised to avoid all cruise company stocks as well as some airline stocks. She says  for now travel industry sector as a whole is too risky to invest in.

 

I call BS

[PrincessLuver]

9 hours ago, Justalone said:

My broker suggested CCL will soon dip to $8 or less.   And may cut the annual dividend to zero.  

On Board Credit benefit will do no good if no one is cruising.

It will take years for CCL, if they don’t go bankrupt, to rebound from losses....and return to profitability..  unless one can wait 10-20 years if you currently have CCL stock.   Due to soon to be announced Corona virus as a world wide pandemic, she  advised to avoid all cruise company stocks as well as some airline stocks. She says  for now travel industry sector as a whole is too risky to invest in.

 

 

I have seen this same scenario talked about by several national financial experts and if things start to approach what is happening in China in other parts of the world I am sure a lot of us will be nesting and going nowhere!!!!

[pablo222]

7 hours ago, caribill said:

 

If a  cruise was on sale, then many people would book a cruise.

 

After 9/11, lots of people were afraid to cruise.

 

The cruise lines discovered the people who were afraid (for example) at $999, were a lot less afraid at $399.

 

As to the folks here with buy recomendations ... there were plenty of folks with buy recomendations at $60, too.

 

Some of the same posters in that thread and this thread.

 

 

I think there is so much uncertainty now, that there is no need to rush to make a decision.

 

Plenty of time to wait and see what happens with the med summer season.

 

The situation with Concordia was completely different.  It was ... bang! ... one instantaneous event.

Carnival Corp didn't have to worry about another ship sinking in a month.

 

 

Edited February 29, 2020 by pablo222

[cruzsnooze]

Does carnival Corp not have any insurances to rely on for lost revenue or such?