What is your expected return date to cruising?

[Ashland]

15 hours ago, davekathy said:

We have a March 2021 B2B Caribbean cruise on the Rhapsody we are hoping to go on. 🤞 Final payment is due first week of December. Going to book our pre cruise hotel stay sometime this week for that cruise.

Keeping up the hope that you'll be able to cruise by then...fingers crossed...because if you can that'll give me hope for July 2021.

[sverigecruiser]

9 hours ago, evandbob said:

The cruise lines will have to make it mandatory that only those vaxxed can sail, and they have to be super diligent to check the proof of vax presented.

 

Will the cruiselines survive if they have to wait until enough people are vaccinated before they start cruising again? I'm not an expert but feel that that may take too long.

[sverigecruiser]

 

I go to work everyday and I buy food a few times every week without a vaccine so I can probably cruise too. The biggest problem is to get to the ship, I think.

[cruisemom42]

6 hours ago, SelectSys said:

 

I hope this didn't keep you from taking a guess.  

 

It did; my point is that most of us made several 'guesses' already this year and most were wrong. 

 

I am not a big fan of continually rebooking and following up with cruise lines, airlines, hotels, and private tours for refunds. 

 

I will no longer make guesses. 

[capriccio]

I'm just booking a family cruise (6 adults, 2 kids) for July 2022 today.  It will replace a cruise on the same ship, same itinerary, and almost the same dates that we had planned for July 2020. 

 

It is far enough out to hope that the situation has improved greatly but, if not, the deposits are totally refundable.

Edited November 18, 2020 by capriccio

[Honolulu Blue]

4 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

Will the cruiselines survive if they have to wait until enough people are vaccinated before they start cruising again? I'm not an expert but feel that that may take too long.

 

The big flagship lines might, but they really don't want to.  The smaller lines with deep-pocketed, committed owners might, if they can stomach the uncertainty and losses in the meantime.  The others, I think, can't afford to wait that long.

[davekathy]

9 hours ago, Ashland said:

Keeping up the hope that you'll be able to cruise by then...fingers crossed...because if you can that'll give me hope for July 2021.

Our glass is full, rose colored glasses on (😍) so until RC tells us differently, we are planning on going.  Just booked our pre cruise hotel. 

[navybankerteacher]

6 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

Will the cruiselines survive if they have to wait until enough people are vaccinated before they start cruising again? I'm not an expert but feel that that may take too long.

In the long run the threat of COVID will pass - one way or another.  The lines might not survive, but many/most of the ships almost certainly will; just operated by reorganized companies with new owners.  Very few of the airlines we flew years ago survived the financial crises they went through.   The planes are still flying - many of them carrying the names of their previous operating companies.  

 

Bankruptcy does not not mean the end of a business, just the end of the entity conducting that business.   “They” will start cruising again - with perhaps the “they” being new or reorganized operators.

[XBGuy]

17 hours ago, evandbob said:

Indeed.  We are optimistic about promising vaccines, yet hear that virus mitigation won't be effected until 80 to 85% of our population get vaccinated.

 

Between anti-vaxxers, hoax criers and those who will take a wait and see attitude about the initial vax rollout, I doubt we can get to an 80% vaxxed level.  

 

 

I somewhat disagree with this.

 

The goal is to reach herd immunity, in which, 80-85% of the general population achieve immunity.  That immunity can come from vaccination, the desired method, or by other, riskier, means.

 

Over the course of time, a very large percentage of people who do not receive the vaccination will contract the disease.  There are two possible outcomes of contraction. 

• If the person survives, he/she will develop immunity protection, and, so, the numerator of for the percentage calcution increases.  Increasing the numerator (i.e., the population with immunity) results in an increase of the the percentage of population with immunity. 
• If he/she does not survive, the denominator of the calculation is decreased.  Decreasing the denominator (i.e., the total population) results in an increase of the percentage of population immunity.

So, people who do not get vaccinated will, in fact, make their contribution to herd immunity.  They will contract the disease,  Happily, once that happens, regardless of the outcome of their case, that outcome will have a positive effect on the percentage of population with immunity.

 

Clearly, having 80-85% of the population being vaccinated is the less traumatic way of achieving herd immunity,  It may, even, be faster,  It, certainly, is my first choice.

[clo]

47 minutes ago, XBGuy said:

 

I somewhat disagree with this.

 

The goal is to reach herd immunity, in which, 80-85% of the general population achieve immunity.  That immunity can come from vaccination, the desired method, or by other, riskier, means.

 

Over the course of time, a very large percentage of people who do not receive the vaccination will contract the disease.  There are two possible outcomes of contraction. 

• If the person survives, he/she will develop immunity protection, and, so, the numerator of for the percentage calcution increases.  Increasing the numerator (i.e., the population with immunity) results in an increase of the the percentage of population with immunity. 
• If he/she does not survive, the denominator of the calculation is decreased.  Decreasing the denominator (i.e., the total population) results in an increase of the percentage of population immunity.

So, people who do not get vaccinated will, in fact, make their contribution to herd immunity.  They will contract the disease,  Happily, once that happens, regardless of the outcome of their case, that outcome will have a positive effect on the percentage of population with immunity.

 

Clearly, having 80-85% of the population being vaccinated is the less traumatic way of achieving herd immunity,  It may, even, be faster,  It, certainly, is my first choice.

I was not aware that there is any data that support immunity lasting.

[TheOldBear]

37 minutes ago, clo said:

I was not aware that there is any data that support immunity lasting.

Here is one link

https://www.contagionlive.com/view/emerging-data-support-lasting-covid19-immunity-t-cells

[lenquixote66]

Everything is starting all over again ,NYC schools are closing again as of tomorrow.

[XBGuy]

2 hours ago, clo said:

I was not aware that there is any data that support immunity lasting.

 

That might be presumptive on my part.

 

Does that weaken my argument?  I'm not really sure one way or the other,

[navybankerteacher]

Still 270 days - a moving target - until there is a clear sign that the "corner has been turned",

[clo]

34 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Still 270 days - a moving target - until there is a clear sign that the "corner has been turned",

Just booked something yesterday. Twenty-two months out and fully cancelable til 18 months out.

[SelectSys]

I took your votes to develop an estimate the Cruise Critic's community guess at an overall return date to cruising.  My guess based on the community input is approximately December 2021. 

 

Here is the plot of the estimated probability distribution using your votes as inputs:

 

Thanks for your votes and indulging my curiosity!

[getting older slowly]

After reading the latest news  about of the state of the corona virus in the US......

 

I would say Cruising is about the last thing to happen..... 

 

So  I would like to say to all CC members in the US... please stay save...

 

and when will cruising return .... for the US mid 2022.... for the rest    maybe late 2021...

but it could longer than that.. in which case cruising may be not return as we know it...

 

Our thoughts are with you...... Don

[FredT]

We took a slightly different approach.  It's my belief (and only a belief/hope) that smaller ships (MUCH smaller) will start before the large lines.  And by "smaller" ships I mean the river cruises, Seabornes, Windstars, Lindblad, etc.   So we booked an October 2021 sailing on a Star Clipper (150 passengers) that ONLY hits Turkey and the Greek islands.

 

Out hope is that it is a LOT easier for a small ship to "demand" that the passengers are vaccinated, and that the cruise line only has to deal with two governments for permission, not 5-10 different bureaucracies.     We shall see.....

[KirkNC]

14 hours ago, SelectSys said:

I took your votes to develop an estimate the Cruise Critic's community guess at an overall return date to cruising.  My guess based on the community input is approximately December 2021. 

 

Here is the plot of the estimated probability distribution using your votes as inputs:

 

Thanks for your votes and indulging my curiosity!

That graph is right if the question is for any cruising with whatever protocols are necessary in place but we aren’t cruising until there is some sense of normalcy.

[Markanddonna]

Many of us (older ones) may receive the vaccine this winter, but the vast majority of cruisers and crew are young and healthy. They may not receive it until late spring, so cruising before then is really questionable.

[FredT]

11 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

That graph is right if the question is for any cruising with whatever protocols are necessary in place but we aren’t cruising until there is some sense of normalcy.

If we were younger i think I would agree with you here, but as a couple in their late 60's we feel that we simply do not have the time to wait "until there is some sense of normalcy"  (Which could take five or more years.)...     So as soon as the airlines and cruise lines open up.....   We're there!

[KirkNC]

Just now, FredT said:

If we were younger i think I would agree with you here, but as a couple in their late 60's we feel that we simply do not have the time to wait "until there is some sense of normalcy"  (Which could take five or more years.)...     So as soon as the airlines and cruise lines open up.....   We're there!

I don’t think it will take five year, two or three maybe.  I am sure you know those older then 65 are in the highest risk group.

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, FredT said:

If we were younger i think I would agree with you here, but as a couple in their late 60's we feel that we simply do not have the time to wait "until there is some sense of normalcy"  (Which could take five or more years.)...     So as soon as the airlines and cruise lines open up.....   We're there!

So, doesn’t being unwilling to wait for a sense of normalcy involve being willing to accept mandatory mask wearing, limitations on shipboard activities, limitations on port activities, etc.?  How close to (or far from) the quality of experience which attracts you to cruising in the first place, are you willing to go just to get on a ship?

 

If the quality of the experience does not matter as long as you are on a floating vessel, there is regular service now between South Ferry in Manhattan and Richmond County.

 

I am interested in cruising as soon as possible - but not with burdensome regulations - or with the risk of repeating the fiasco of recent cruise from Barbados - which obviously struck many as a cruise line opening up.

[latserrof]

1 hour ago, FredT said:

... as a couple in their late 60's we feel that we simply do not have the time to wait "until there is some sense of normalcy" 

We are about the same age, but look at it differently. We have a good life and our health, and we don't want to jeopardize that by cruising when there are so many other safer  ways to enjoy the time we have left.

Edited November 19, 2020 by latserrof

[SelectSys]

10 hours ago, getting older slowly said:

and when will cruising return .... for the US mid 2022.... for the rest    maybe late 2021...

but it could longer than that.. in which case cruising may be not return as we know it...

 

Looks like your are in line with the "average" cruise critic respondent!

 

2 hours ago, KirkNC said:

That graph is right if the question is for any cruising with whatever protocols are necessary in place but we aren’t cruising until there is some sense of normalcy.

 

Who knows if the graph is correct or incorrect?  I assume that everyone "baked" in their own assumptions with respect to onboard protocols.  My assumption is that cruising really won't restart until wide spread vaccinations have been achieved.   The new normal is just too difficult to maintain.  Heck, even our own Governor in CA has trouble abiding by his own rules of mask wearing and social distancing!

 

2 hours ago, Markanddonna said:

Many of us (older ones) may receive the vaccine this winter, but the vast majority of cruisers and crew are young and healthy. They may not receive it until late spring, so cruising before then is really questionable.

 

Late spring vaccinations would support these "young" cruisers returning by year end.  As I said above, I think cruising without vaccinations is just about impossible at scale.

 

2 hours ago, FredT said:

If we were younger i think I would agree with you here, but as a couple in their late 60's we feel that we simply do not have the time to wait "until there is some sense of normalcy"  (Which could take five or more years.)...     So as soon as the airlines and cruise lines open up.....   We're there!

 

So you are just a bit older than I am.  I delayed my retirement this year due to COVID.  I am out as soon as it is practical in terms of travel / vaccination is available.  

 

I think you'll be surprised at how fast things return to normal once vaccinations are prevalent.  Maybe some mask wearing and extra sanitation, but not much else.

 

1 hour ago, navybankerteacher said:

...

I am interested in cruising as soon as possible - but not with burdensome regulations - or with the risk of repeating the fiasco of recent cruise from Barbados - which obviously struck many as a cruise line opening up.

 

It is because of this fiasco that I believe cruising doesn't really restart for anyone who isn't vaccinated - at least in the US.  It will be a gradual ramp up to get back to any sense of normal traffic levels.

Edited November 19, 2020 by SelectSys